World Series Game 7 Betting Tips

1-0 last night. 5-1 in World Series.

Well, this is it. I posted a winner at SportsBettingTips.org yesterday with the over. It was close as this game was stuck at 7 while we had the 7.5 until the 9th inning when it was pushed over by the Nationals.

Last night saw an absolutely gutsy performance from Stephen Strasburg as he went 8+ innings to carry his team to game seven. The tips I made yesterday foresaw an Astros win, but a lot of that is because we don’t project a starter to go that deep in the game because nobody goes that deep anymore. The average start is something like five innings or less so this was a big deal. This was the longest start of the playoffs and while it would’ve been cool to see him get the complete game, it wasn’t needed.

This sets up a game seven with the highest possible stakes and the Nationals have Max Scherzer back. He was meant to have started on Sunday, but was a late scratch with a neck injury. He is healthy for this one and will be facing off with Zack Greinke here. This is a huge advantage for the Nationals on the pitching side and the line is one of the lowest of the series.

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Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros Betting Tips:

I made some tweaks to the system for this game as this is definitely an all hands on deck situation. I adjusted the Astros/Greinke numbers down to a 4 innings projection while upping Scherzer all the way up to 7 innings. I improved the bullpens based on these innings projections as the worst pitchers obviously won’t be touching this game.

Even with all of that, the Astros are still favored by the system. The system has Houston as a -133 favorite while the current line is -130. That’s close and not at our usual value threshold, but if you’re looking for a winner pick – there it is. This is the first World Series in which the road team has won all the road games and that streak has to end at some point. Why not tonight?

Scherzer doing what Strasburg did last night is the only real path to victory I see for the Nats. Greinke will be given a short leash and then it’s going to be all the best pitchers Houston can throw out. Not enough is known about Scherzer’s injury to protect it, but he could be limited and that is a risk of him leaving the game at any time.

I like the Astros to win, but for game seven we’re going to roll with what brought us here. Five of six games in this series have gone over the posted total and tonight should make it six. The system sees 8 runs scored even with all the adjustments. The total is 7.5, but if you can get 7 you should grab that.

Bet Astros/Nationals Over 7.5 Runs

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World Series Game 5 Betting Tips

A 1-0 night last night. 4-1 during the World Series.

Last night went just about how I imagined it would last night. The Astros proved why they are the best team against lefties in the league as they tagged Patrick Corbin for four runs. While Jose Urquidy pitched a great five innings of shutout ball. That really set up the Astros to protect their lead with the elite portion of their bullpen and that’s exactly what they did… until Alex Bregman hit a grand slam and put this one out of reach. Anyone who has been watching baseball over the past ten years was not surprised at all by that Fernando Rodney performance. He has to be the most feast or famine pitcher I’ve ever watched.

Tonight we are getting a truly special pitching match-up between Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer. Both of them struggled a bit in game one, but this is game five which is now the most important game of the series. These teams both need to win this one, especially the Nationals who won’t have another home game. They’ll be playing in front of the President tonight too and, man, that has to stink for the Nats fans. As if it’s not hard enough to get into a game in 2019, now you have to deal with the Secret Service. Those guys are uptight.

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Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

These two pitchers are so evenly matched it’s ridiculous.

Scherzer FIP-: 54
Cole FIP-: 59

Scherzer home FIP: 2.74
Cole away FIP: 2.76

Scherzer looks to be a bit better, but it’s still very close. I’d really like to bet on a big performance from here as the Nationals are a decent sized underdog tonight. The only problem is that I can’t see either of these pitchers going seven innings. That is not the way baseball works in 2019 and these offenses are unlikely to let that happen anyways. They are both good at working counts and getting to that third time through the order. Neither one of these managers is going to let their guys be exposed like that so we have to look beyond that here.

The Nationals bullpen has proved disastrous outside of Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson. Their best chance to win tonight is with Scherzer being amazing for seven innings and then those other two taking over. Only problem is, the Astros offense is really, really good and are very unlikely to let that happen.

While the Astros best course of action is a bit more straight forward. If Cole can get to the sixth or even into the fifth, the Astros bullpen can handle a bigger load. They have hardly used Roberto Osuna and Ryan Pressley in this series and Will Harris should be good to go here as well.

As fun as a Nationals win here might be, it’s just too hard to go against the Astros here. They have the better squad up-and-down and barring a huge performance from Scherzer, I just don’t see them taking this one.

I was tempted by the over as it is sent at just 7 runs and three of four games have went over in this series, but I think we are going to get a better performance from the starters here that keeps it closer to the posted total.

Bet Astros -145

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World Series Game 4 Betting Tips

1-1 last night.

We had the Astros and the over last night. Houston came in big as they got an early lead and never looked back, but the over fell short for the first time in this series. Based on just a cursory glance at the box score and I think I would make that over bet again. The Nationals went 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position while the teams combined for 22 men left on base.

Tonight, the pressure is back on the Nationals with the Astros having the chance to tie this thing up and reclaim home field advantage. The Astros are going with a bullpen game with Jose Urquidy getting the start and they’ll likely go with him as long as he can make it. He’s no slouch so he could surprise here. While the Nationals will be sending Patrick Corbin, their big offseason acquisition and their third best starter. This is going to be interesting.

With baseball season almost over, I decided to start up another betting website. This one focuses exclusively on pro wrestling. The WWE and AEW betting markets are something that I’ve been watching for awhile and they’ve really started to grow into something worth following. The site is Bet on Pro Wrestling and I try to put up a post about once a week with different options including TV ratings, match specials, and futures. Check it out if you are interested in the sport of kings.

For now, baseball.

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Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

The interesting story here is Patrick Corbin facing this Astros offense. Corbin had a good season with a 3.25 ERA/3.49 FIP with over 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Those are pretty good numbers, but the only problem is he is facing the Astros who were the very best team in all of baseball against left handed pitchers. They had an .868 OPS/131 wRC+ against lefties on the season. That is a dangerous offense and I’m not sure how much success Corbin is going to find here today.

As we’ve said all series, if Corbin doesn’t go deep into this one then the Nationals could be in trouble. The Nats bullpen isn’t filled with killers and they’ve shown that they only true trust two of their relievers. The good news for them is they didn’t use either of them last night and the ones they did use performed well.

The sample on Urquidy is small, but he did have a 3.95 ERA/3.68 FIP during his starts during the regular season. I think I can see him doing at least four innings here which would be huge for Houston. If their offfense can do what I think it’s capable of against Corbin, their bullpen should be able to do the rest. On the season, the Astros were a top-ten bullpen while the Nationals were a bottom-three.

Bet Astros -111

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World Series Game 3 Betting Tips

We are 2-0 in the series thus far with two picks of the over. Both have come pretty easy which is nice.

The big surprise is that the Nationals are up 2-0. They went in to Houston, faced down two of the pitchers in the game and got big wins. They now return home with a chance to win their first ever championship at home.

The bigger win was saving Patrick Corbin from a relief appearance meaning he is good to go in game four. I am thinking that the Nationals would love to win this game tonight, but they are probably looking at game four and beyond when their big two starters will be ready.

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Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros Betting Tips:

The Nationals are sending Anibal Sanchez to the mound tonight and he is a big part of the reason that I think that the Nationals are looking beyond this game. Sanchez had a 3.85 ERA/4.44 FIP and is not the kind of pitcher who inspires a ton of confidence. Considering the Nats only have two relievers they trust, this could be a long night for them.

Of course, the Astros are bringing the heat tonight with Zack Greinke on the mound who had a 2.93 ERA/3.22 FIP on the season. He had a rough start against Tampa in the first round, but has been solid since then. I am expecting a big game from him here.

That said, I am expecting some run scoring here and the total is once again too low for these two teams. I can see Greinke allowing three runs here and for the Astros offense, the sky is the limit. Sanchez is the kind of pitcher that they can really take advantage of and I think we are going to see the offense that we’ve come accustomed to today.

Bet Astros/Nationals Over 8 Runs

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After two games of the Astros being a far bigger favorite than necessary, the line is actually far below what the Bet MLB System thinks it should be. The system says this game should be -198, but it’s only -135. That is a green light go and you need to bet on the Astros and the over tonight.

Bet Astros -135

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World Series Game 2 Betting Tips

Last night, the Nationals took a 1-0 lead in the World Series with a big win over the Astros. We had the winning tip of over at SportsBettingTips.org and are back for game two. The total on that game was set at just 6.5 and both offenses really showed up to put us over that number.

Tonight, Justin Verlander leads the Astros against Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals. This is another amazing pitching match-up as these two are like a mirror image of one another. Verlander had a 2.58 ERA/3.27 FIP/3.18 xFIP on the season while Strasburg had a 3.32 ERA/3.25 FIP/3.17 xFIP.

Despite that closeness of the talent level of the two pitchers, the Astros are a -175 favorite here with a total of just 7.

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Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros Betting Tips:

This line is once again skewed towards the Astros and the Bet MLB System sees them as a favorite once again. Not quite enough to have value as this Nationals team is just good enough to cause question marks.

The pick here, once again, is the over. The total is set very low based on the two starters, but those starters aren’t likely to make it too deep in this game. Both of these teams proved they are good at working the count and getting the pitch totals high.

The big question for the Nationals are what they are going to do when Strasburg doesn’t make it deep. Last night they had to use Patrick Corbin who was the presumptive game three starter as there are basically two relievers that manager Dave Martinez trusts in this bullpen. The Nationals held on by a thread last night as their bullpen got the lead down to 5-4 by the end, but managed to hold on.

I am not sure they will have that same luck tonight. This feels like another slam dunk over to the Bet MLB System. The Astros offense is too good to keep down and the Nationals are scrappy as they come.

Bet Astros/Nationals Over 7 Runs

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ALCS Game 6 Betting Tips

We took the over on the game last night and it was looking pretty good at the start. Five runs in the first inning is a pretty good start when the total is only 7.5 runs. Instead, that was all the run scoring that we’d see and the Yankees were able to force game six with a 4-1 win. James Paxton was great here and the Yankees bullpen did the rest as always.

Tonight is a pretty interesting game as we have both of these teams going without true starters. Chad Green goes for the Yankees and Jose Urquidy is going for the Astros. Uruidy is a starter, but he only made seven starts during the regular season with just three of those going over six innings. He did have a few great starts this year, but you have to think he is going to be used more like an opener in this one. The first sign of trouble and he’s out.

To account for that, I am just going strictly off bullpen stats for this game. The difference between these two and the guys coming in behind them is minor, and I think we’re going to see some fireworks here.

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New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Betting Tips:

The Bet MLB System sees this game as a coinflip. While the Astros are favored at -140 for this game, my system sees it being far closer than that. The Astros are favored by about -101 in my system. That’s nothing and this one could really go either way.

The system sees this game as being a real offensive battle. While both of these teams will be bullpening and playing the match-ups, they are also two of the best offenses in all of baseball. The total is a bit higher tonight, but I think they will hit it. They both have big power and are dying to show it off. We saw a glimpse of it last night with Justin Verlander and James Paxton on the mound. We should see a lot more of it early with Chad Green and Jose Urquidy.

Bet Astros/Yankees Over 9 Runs

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ALCS Game 5 Betting Tips

Tonight we have game five of the ALCS with the Astros having a chance to clinch their spot in the World Series.

Last night, the Astros got the big win 8-3 over the Yankees as Zack Greinke was able to shutdown the Yankees offense for 4 1/3 and then the bullpen took it the rest of the way. The Yankees played a pretty sloppy game with errors and unearned runs that ultimately cost them here. They’ll need to play much better in this one.

They send James Paxton to the mound who had a decent season, but really struggled in game two of this series as he only made it 2 1/3 innings before getting the hook. His stats weren’t that bad on the surface, but Aaron Boone has been managing to the Yankees strengths thus far and that is the bullpen. Even with that strategy, the Yankees are going to need something more out of Paxton here as the pitching match-up should be tough for them today.

Justin Verlander has been the man in the playoffs throughout his career and held the Yankees to two runs over 6.2 innings in his lone start in this series. He is a big game pitcher who had a 2.58 ERA/3.27 FIP on the season.

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Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Betting Tips:

The big thing to me here is the Astros offense against James Paxton. The Astros had a 141 wRC+ on the season against lefties and are a team that can put up some big numbers on short notice. This stadium always plays well to that as well since the fences are so short in the corners. He’ll have a short leash, but the Yankees need him for at least four innings here.

Justin Verlander is great, but this is the Yankees in an elimination game. The scariest offense in the game at home with their backs against the wall. They’ve seen Verlander once already and I expect him to not go nearly as deep in this one.

My system sees the Astros winning here, but it’s close. It’s pretty close to the line that is presented. The Bet MLB System thinks the line should be about -145 for the Astros. It’s currently -141. However, where the system disagrees with the line is in the total score.

The system really likes the over here. The system says, with these two offenses, that the total should be 9 runs. As it is, it’s set at 7.5. While the system might not be adjusting for the top-level bullpen pitchers we might see here, I have to go with it and I have to go with these offenses that have been hitting overs all season long.

Bet Astros/Yankees Over 7.5 Runs

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August 28th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

Long time no see.

I was on vacation most of last week with the family. We went camping without internet and I mostly just tried to disconnect from the outside world for a few days. It felt good and I am feeling refreshed. I have to go out of town again this weekend, but after that I should be on a more regular schedule that will include going every day of the playoffs.

Until then, let’s get to today’s tips.

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Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYCubsKyle Hendricks84
HOMEMetsNoah Syndergaard77

The Cubs got the win last night to break their losing streak and continue that of the Mets. Tonight, I see things going a bit differently.

Kyle Hendricks goes for the Cubs and while he’s been very good this season, his road numbers are not the best. He has a 4.76 ERA/4.53 FIP on the road this year with a 1.46 HR/9 rate. The Mets have been hitting well and I like them to do so here.

The Mets will send Noah Syndergaard and while his strikeout numbers aren’t what they once were, he does have some good numbers on the year with a 3.71 ERA/3.36 FIP. Before yesterday, the Cubs offense had been very cold over the past two weeks and I think he can take advantage of them here.

Bet Mets -113

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August 17th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

1-0 last night.

A lot of ugly lines today in that awkward -150 to -175 range. These don’t have a ton of value unless they are an absolute sure thing. The system is a fan of the Twins today, but over -160 on the road is a big price to pay and I’m not sure it’s worth that.

The system likes two other games a lot more though. One is over that -150 mark, but it’s such a slam dunk I’d think you could reasonably lay the -1.5 to get a better price if you wanted to. Let’s get into it.

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San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

The system is a big fan of Dinelson Lamet here. He has huge strikeout numbers on the season with a 3.86 ERA/3.82 FIP. The starts are limited, but he’s been a better pitcher on the road this season and I like his match-up here. The Phillies have been ravaged by injuries this season with Rhys Hoskins the latest to go down.

He faces Zach Eflin who is a pitcher I feel okay going against. He has a 4.49 ERA/4.84 FIP on the season with a 1.60 HR/9. The Padres offense has been playing well of late and they do have power.

Bet Padres -111

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

This is the game that I mentioned above and the system just really loves it. And why not? Mike Foltynewicz has been terrible this season with a 6.24 ERA/5.82 FIP and he’s facing one of the best offenses against right handed pitchers in all of baseball. I’m surprised this line isn’t -200.

The Dodgers send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound and while he has been worse on the road this season, he is far better than Folty. His road numbers have him at a 2.22 ERA/3.54 FIP.

This tip is all about the Dodgers vs. Foltynewicz though and that is enough for me.

Bet Dodgers -154

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August 16th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

Just one tip today.

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Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

TeamNameFIP-
TwinsJake Odorizzi83
RangersMike Minor83

Mike Minor has had a great season this year, but he draws an extremely tough match-up here. The Twins have been one of the top hitting teams in all of baseball against left handed pitchers with a 120 wRC+. Minor is having a good season at home with a 3.19 ERA/3.24 FIP, but this park can be very hitter friendly and I don’t trust the bullpen behind him.

He faces off with Jake Odorizzi who has been a big part of the Twins’ success this year. He has been better on the road with a 3.63 ERA/3.82 away from home. The difference here is that the Rangers are a below average team against right handed pitchers and they have been particularly cold of late. The Rangers bullpen is also significantly worse than the Twins.

Bet Twins -109

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