2019 World Series Championship Betting Odds

The Boston Red Sox won the 2018 World Series after one heck of a season. The playoff run was amazing as they basically beat the other two best teams in the American League (Yankees then Astros) and then beat the Dodgers who were the most talented team in the National League. It was a dominating season and they were fully deserving of the championship, but that was then. The 2018 season is over and while it’s pretty early to do so, the 2019 World Series odds are now out so let’s take a look. Read More

World Series Game 5 Betting Tips

A 1-0 night last night. The Red Sox now lead the series 3-1.

We took the runline with the Red Sox last night and the comments had me saying to go with the moneyline. That proved correct, but the way this game played out I am happy that I did what I did. You can’t expect a team to score nine runs in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. That is a very unlikely result in a game of this magnitude. The funny thing is, I was really considering the over but after being burned over 18 innings that seemed like a bad idea. I should know that yesterday’s results aren’t predictive of today’s. I’ve been preaching it all season.

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So, here we go. The World Series could end tonight. David Price is on the mound for the Red Sox and he could complete his revitalization as a playoff pitcher with a clinching win tonight. This guy was the worst postseason pitcher of all-time, but then against the Astros everything flipped. He was solid against them in the clinching game and solid against the Dodgers earlier in this series. Can it continue today?

LA will send Clayton Kershaw to the mound and he has his own playoff demons to overcome. Well, he has overcome them I think, but a loss here would keep that sticker of “playoff choker” on him and it might never fully wash off. Plus, a loss ends his chances at a World Series ring again and he’s not getting any younger.

A lot of narratives at play here. A lot of pressure on Kershaw and Price. This could be a good one.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox Game 5 Betting Tips:

The decision to go with Price over Chris Sale will be scrutinized to be sure. The good thing about that decision though is that if this game is in reach they can pull that trump card out and there won’t be much the Red Sox can do about it.

That said, Kershaw at home in a deciding game is very intriguing. He had a 2.58 ERA/3.35 FIP and all of his best starts of this postseason have come at home. I think he can match Rich Hill‘s performance from yesterday and get this team to game six. I don’t fully trust the bullpen behind him, but I do trust Kenley Jansen and I think those two can combine for at least eight and possibly the full nine. I’ve been harping on this the whole playoffs, but the Red Sox are a worse hitting team against lefties. That hasn’t really paid off (outside of yesterday’s first six innings), but the numbers don’t lie and two-out, Eduardo Nunez stuff won’t happen forever.

I think that Price is over those playoff woes, I truly do. That said, he did have a 3.58 ERA/4.02 FIP on the season so it’s not like we are talking about someone like Sale here. He is still hittable and the Dodgers will be desperate here.

This game feels more like game four than anything. I think the pitching shows up and the bats go cold. Give me the Dodgers in a close one.

Bet Dodgers -135

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World Series Game 4 Betting Tips

0-1 record last night.

Well, I certainly wasn’t expecting that. Walker Buehler going seven innings was a real shocker as the Red Sox have hit everyone this postseason from Clayton Kershaw to Luis Severino to Justin Verlander. The rookie starting pitcher is the one who handled them and shut them out. I am a fan of his, but I’m not sure I understand this series. The Dodgers blew the slim one run lead that Buehler got them in the eighth and 10 innings later, we saw them win 3-2. Well, some people saw them win. I fell asleep in the 17th. The longest game in both innings and time in World Series history. This game lasted forever. How long was it?

Fun fact?

Alex Cora leaving Andrew Benintendi out of the starting lineup was just plain dumb. One batter doesn’t change everything, but he has been on fire early in this series. Just play Mookie Betts at 2B! He can do it! Then again, Mookie and Xander Bogaerts combined for an 0-for-15, so who knows.

After a game like this you have to figure out who it hurt more. The Red Sox got six innings out of Nathan Eovaldi in this one which helps big time. So while they did burn the game four starter, they saved the bullpen. The Dodgers used Pedro Baez and Kenley Jansen for two innings each which could hurt that back end.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

There is a lot of pressure on Rich Hill to perform here. His team needs him and his bullpen needs him. Is he up to the tasK? He had a 3.66 ERA/3.97 FIP/3.70 xFIP during the regular season with 8.71 K/9. The Red Sox were worse against left handed pitching during the regular season and Hill has been solid in playoffs with a 2.61 ERA/3.84 FIP/5.28 xFIP over three starts. My question with him is, how deep will he go? He’s just to go more than five inning in the playoffs and the Red Sox are murder in the third time through the order. (At least they were before yesterday.)

I think the Red Sox will throw some combination of Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz out there today. They are both lefties and the Dodgers are statistically worse against LHP. That doesn’t impress me much either, but the bullpen on the back end is far healthier heading into this one and they have been the better bullpen in the series thus far.

Yesterday was a slog and the Red Sox offense really struggled, but I think they bounce back today. I am not quite ready to go the full way with them, but I will take the moneyline in their favor. I think they either win big or it’s another game like yesterday. Score wise, not length wise. Please not length wise.

Taking the Red Sox with the run line.

Bet Red Sox +1.5 (-145)

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World Series Game 3 Betting Tips

An 0-2 record in game two. Still winning money overall in the playoffs though.

We’ve been in a bit of a cold spell and the reason for that is the Boston Red Sox. We are going against them and they are winning these games. There are reasons, of course. They’ve gotten outstanding production with two outs. 36 of their 68 runs in the postseason (source) have come with two outs. That’s not how baseball is supposed to work. They’ve also been getting production from the bottom of the lineup. Put those two together and projections don’t matter.

Take the fifth inning in this last game. Two outs and Hyun-Jin Ryu is facing the catcher Christian Vazquez. This guy hit .207/.257/.283 on the season and he stepped up, got down 0-2 and ended up with a single. Then it was the top of the order with the third time through the order for Ryu and the Dodgers 2-1 lead turned into a 4-2 deficit.

That said, I don’t agree with Dave Roberts decision to have him face the top of the order. If Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw couldn’t make it through five, neither should Ryu. Once that third time through the order got up, he should’ve pulled him. I’m not saying that the result would be different as the reliever behind him, Ryan Madson, didn’t do much better, but allowing him to load the bases before pulling him wasn’t great strategy when he’s been burned by this before. Especially with a top of the lineup as potent as Boston’s.

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This game should be different. Roberts has also been sticking to his platoons in this one and that has kept Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger out of the lineup. Muncy is one of their best hitters and Cody Bellinger is their best source for power. Keeping them on the bench, even with the splits disadvantage, hasn’t worked out thus far. Luckily for those players, there is a righty on the mound tonight.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, they are also sending a righty to the mound. These two teams were #1 and #2 in wRC+ against right handed pitchers on this year and I am expecting some fireworks from both sides.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

Walker Buehler goes for the Dodgers and while I think he’s a very good pitcher, a 2.62 ERA/3.04 FIP during the regular season, he has been vulnerable in these playoffs. He had the one bad inning in the first round and allowed 12 hits in 11.2 innings in the NLDS. The Braves and Dodgers aren’t even close to the Red Sox in offense. I’m worried.

The Red Sox send Rick Porcello who should be coming in pretty fresh. He made just one start in the ALCS and one short relief appearance. He had a 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP in the regular season so he’s nothing to get too crazy about though.

I have this pegged as another two times through the lineup game for both of these starters. I mean, after what we’ve seen in the first two games, how could you do any different? I’m not afraid of either bullpen right now (although I do believe Craig Kimbrel is back and Kenley Jansen is good) and I think this is a great spot to grab the over.

Bet Dodgers/Red Sox Over 7.5 Runs

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World Series Game 2 Betting Tips

A 1-1 record last night.

Things went basically how I thought they would last night. Both starters were okay, but not great and this game was 3-2 after four innings. Chris Sale was unable to finish the fifth and the Dodgers tied it and then Clayton Kershaw was unable to finish it and they took the lead right back. The Dodgers probably should’ve learned from the Red Sox and not even sent Kershaw out for the fifth, but it’s Kershaw so I get it. After this is when the wheels fell off for the Dodgers.

The bullpen did not look good in the seventh as three pitchers couldn’t get the job done and Eduardo Nunez of all people hit a three-run homerun. The Dodgers had some opportunities and there were some defensive lapses that I felt really messed things up for them, but the Red Sox clearly won this game.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

Tonight’s match-up sees David Price pitching for the Red Sox. He had a solid season with a 3.58 ERA/4.02 FIP and just over 9 K/9. He’s been a very solid pitcher during the regular season, but he’s been one of the worst postseason pitchers of all-time. He shed that a bit as he shut down the Astros in the last round, but you can still see the scars. The Dodgers had a 101 wRC+ against lefties on the season.

Hyun-Jin Ryu goes for the Dodgers and he looked great in his fifteen starts during the regular season with a 1.97 ERA/3.00 FIP. He was very solid in the first round, but in round two allowed 7 earned runs in 7.1 innings.

I don’t think either of these guys will go very deep. I’d put the cap at about four innings and that is the number I am using for my projection system. That system sees another high scoring game with 9-10 runs being scored.

Bet Dodgers/Red Sox Over 8.5 Runs

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As for the winner of this game, well, it depends. The Dodgers bad innings came at the hand of Alex Wood and Julio Urias. These guys have been shaky all postseason and I question why they were used here. While the Red Sox relievers were good, Ryan Brasier looked shaky and he is key here.

I like the over here because I think both starters will give up some runs early and then it’ll be on the bullpens to hold the leads/keep it close. For me, David Price seems to be the one with a higher chance of things going bad. I don’t see him having the strikeout stuff that Sale had yesterday and that really got him through. The Dodgers bullpen has some strong arms that went unused yesterday and if they get a lead, I think they keep it.

I’m going to be going with the Dodgers again and the series getting tied up.

Bet Dodgers +128

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World Series Game 1 Betting Tips

So, this is it. The World Series.

Boston was the best team all season long as the addition of JD Martinez combined with the MVP level season from Mookie Betts made this one of the best offenses in baseball. Chris Sale had an outstanding season that should net him the Cy Young award and the bullpen was one of the better (but not quite elite) in the American League. Boston went 21-7 in March/April and never looked back. This team fully deserves to be here and they enter the series as a slight favorite at -155.

The Dodgers were a big time preseason favorite to win the National League, but things started very slowly for them. Clayton Kershaw started slowly and got injured, Cody Bellinger wasn’t the homerun machine that we saw last year and Corey Seager went out for the season early. On May 16th, they were 16-26 and had just a 41.6% chance of making the playoffs. Since then they went 76-45 and have been one of the best teams in the league. They got huge performances from Walker Buehler, Max Muncy, and Justin Turner this year and then they traded for the best hitter on the market in Manny Machado. You can bet this team to win the series at +135.

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My pick? The Dodgers. I have some questions about key players on Boston that I’m not sure that they can overcome. Craig Kimbrel might be the luckiest man alive after that Astros series and I’m not convinced he’s “fixed”. David Price had a great start, but that’s still just one great playoff start against so many not so good ones. I have some Chris Sale thoughts as well that I’ll get into below. This will be a close one though and I can really sit it going either way. Right now though, my gut is saying Dodgers. Let’s get into game one.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox Game 1 Betting Tips:

Kershaw and Sale do battle in game one and you really couldn’t ask for a better pitching match-up in the World Series. The very best pitcher right now against one of the best pitchers of all-time. I’d say that’s World Series worthy and ready for prime time.

I’m worried about Chris Sale though. He only managed to pitch one game in the ALCS thanks to a stomach issue that sent him to the hospital. He barely pitched in the last month of the season and when he did, his velocity was down. That velocity seemingly bounced back in the first round against the Yankees, but he saw a dip in his lone start against the Astros as well and the command wasn’t there. Maybe that was related to the stomach thing, maybe it wasn’t. I’m not ready to count on a classic Sale start just yet though.

As for Kershaw, he had one awesome start against the Brewers and one bad one. The difference? Location. He had a tough one on the road at Milwaukee and now pitches at Fenway Park which is a very offense friendly park. The addition of a designated hitter won’t help him much and I can see him making an early exit here. Just like I see Sale doing that.

I’m feeling pretty strong about the over on this one. I don’t see either of these pitchers getting very deep and I think they are a bit more vulnerable than usual here.

Bet Dodgers/Red Sox Over 7.5 Runs

As for a winner, I am going to go with the Dodgers. I just don’t feel really good about Sale and the back end of the Red Sox bullpen. Matt Barnes has been solid, but Kimbrel has been scary to watch. Cora still trusts him though and that could end up going bad here. That part of the Dodgers bullpen has been very good and I am trusting them to get it done again here. That game seven against the Brewers was one where it felt like the Dodgers finally realized that they are one of the best teams in the league and acted like it. That carries over here.

Bet Dodgers -135

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game 7 Betting Tips

1-0 last night.

The Brewers had a big first inning yesterday and never looked back. Wade Miley did a fine job and the bullpen came in and did theirs. Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress looked strong. The great thing for the Brewers is that they didn’t have to use Josh Hader. They warmed him up late in the game, but the offense made it a 7-2 game and they sat him down. That is huge for today.

Today should be a very interesting game. One game to take the National League and go on to the World Series. Who has been the better team? There were at least five games in this series that I think the Brewers could’ve/should’ve won. They won three of them. Much like the Red Sox/Astros series though, it only matters if you do win them and the Dodgers won three and looked great in doing so. Kenley Jansen has been better than Jeremy Jeffress, Manny Machado has been better than Christian Yelich and the Dodgers starters are clearly better.

That said, this is one game. It’s all hands on deck. The Brewers will have Josh Hader out of the bullpen which gives them a big bonus, but the Dodgers will start Walker Buehler and I don’t think will hesitate to use Clayton Kershaw out of the bullpen if they need to. This should be one heck of a game.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

If we look at this game purely from the starters’ perspective, the Brewers don’t have a chance. Jhoulys Chacin has been great in the playoffs for this team, but he isn’t on Walker Buehler’s level. For the season:

Buehler: 2.62 ERA/3.04 FIP/3.21 xFIP – 9.9 K/9 – 2.42 BB/9
Chacin: 3.50 ERA/4.03 FIP/4.47 xFIP – 7.29 K/9 – 3.32 BB/9

Buehler is clearly much better. In game three, he gave up four runs but that was just because he was left out there too long. He allowed only two runs in six innings before heading back out for the seventh.

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Chacin will only be asked to go through the order two times, if that. We saw it yesterday where Counsell tried to squeeze out that third time through with Miley and instantly regretted it as the Dodgers added a run. That won’t happen today. It’ll be Chacin, Knebel, Jeffress and Hader with maybe one more thrown in there. I can see Chacin for the first three and Hader for the last three with the rest filling out the middle. This is pretty much the biggest Brewers game in 36 years and Counsell, Wisconsin born and bred, knows that. He won’t hesitate to throw the big guns out there.

Which brings us to what the Dodgers might do. The best bet is probably doing something similar. Walker two times through the order, Pedro Baez, Dylan Floro, Kershaw if necessary and Jansen. Neither team is going to waste an inning here with a pitcher that they don’t believe gives them the best chance to win. This will be All-Star level parade of pitchers and for that, I have to go under.

Bet Dodgers/Brewers Under 7.5 Runs

As for a winner. Well, I’m biased. If the Brewers win, I am going to the World Series. I’ve been to playoff games, Wild Card games and multiple stadiums throughout the league. I’ve never been to the World Series and I very badly want to buy tickets to do that on Monday morning. That would be a dream come true. So my rooting interest is very squarely in one camp.

That said, the Brewers are home and they have the lower team ERA in this series and the higher team OPS. It feels like the right pick, regular season numbers be damned. Let’s go Brewers.

Bet Brewers +105

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game 6 Betting Tips

0-2 record last night. 21-12 in the playoffs.

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox on winning the 2018 American League Championship. I’m not sure this series will ever make sense to me, but they definitely won it and deserve their place in the World Series. So many crazy things happened in this series though. Craig Kimbrel looked terrible and got three saves. Chris Sale only managed to pitch four innings. David Price, the worst postseason pitcher ever (not hyperbole), threw a gem in the deciding game against the best offense against lefties (on the road). It was crazy, but that’s baseball.

The Dodgers could seal their place against them in the World Series with a win tonight. This series has been similarly frustrating as there is a world in which the Brewers have already put this thing away. A Jeremy Jeffress save in game two and someone, anyone getting a hit in game four and this thing would be done. That didn’t happen though and now the Brewers need to win two straight to make the World Series. The odds are against them, but this is also the team that won eight straight to steal the Central division from the Cubs and the top overall seed. Anything can happen.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

Game five is one that I kicked myself for not taking the Dodgers. The Brewers were without their big guns in the bullpen and that’s who this team is. The Brewers not having Josh Hader would be like the Red Sox not having Mookie Betts. He’s that valuable to this team.

Today, the Brewers will send Wade Miley to the mound (for real) but Hader will be right behind him. And Corey Knebel. This is win or go home and the Brewers will throw it all out there to win this one. Miley had a great start in game two that was ruined by the bullpen, but he’s looked great and the crowd will be hot for this one. I haven’t been much of a believer in him thus far, but I am a believer in Hader and Knebel. If they get into this game, I don’t see how the Brewers can lose.

Milwaukee’s offense has been the real problem in the last two games, but you have to think some home cooking will do them well here. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been outstanding this year, but he’s been worse on the road and did give up two runs in 4.1 innings in game two. I can see Dave Roberts doing whatever it takes to win this one and I could see him using a starter in the bullpen if necessary.

This is the biggest game of the season for both of these teams. Milwaukee can’t afford to lose and I really believe they are going to force a game seven here. Miley looked good and that bullpen is at full strength. Manager Craig Counsell won’t be afraid to use it. Let’s go Milwaukee and let’s see game seven on Saturday.

Bet Brewers -108

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Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 5 Betting Tips

An 0-1-1 record last night.

I always feels like I am making up excuses when I write up the recaps. Like the Astros could’ve won last night. The Red Sox put out Craig Kimbrel in the eighth for his first six out save of the year and he had no control, gave up a ton of hits and walks, and nearly blew the game. Nearly blowing the game isn’t blowing the game though. That said, I do have one big excuse for this game and that’s the fact that the UMPIRES STOLE A HOMERUN FORM THE ASTROS!

That was not fan interference. Fan interference is when a fan reaches over and affects the play. This was, at worst, Steve Bartman. At best, it’s Mookie Betts trying to rob a homerun and failing. Unbelievable. Two runs off the board and a complete series shift.

I do feel a little bait-and-switched by the Brewers/Dodgers game. The Wade Miley move was genius, but not exactly good for our purposes. That said, Clayton Kershaw put up a great performance and that was that. Serious question: are these two series even the same sport? The Brewers/Dodgers would kill for 1/4th of the offense of the AL teams and the Astros/Red Sox would kill for those kind of pitching performances.

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Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

I’ve been wrong about this series thus far. The Astros were my favorite heading into this one and maybe that blinded me a bit. They’ve been favored a ton here, but the bullpen has been a risk and the Red Sox offense is on fire right now. These games are hard to pick. The last three games are the first time that the Astros allowed seven or more runs in three straight games all season. Their strength has been their pitching and that hasn’t been a strength. Also, Jackie Bradley Jr. is hitting homeruns after a .234/.314/.403 season.

I think the Astros are going to win today. I was almost going to switch things up and take the moneyline for the Red Sox, hedge my beliefs and the system with what I’m seeing on the field. I wouldn’t blame anyone for doing that, but the Astros are the better team and they have the far better starter today.

David Price has lived up to his playoff reputation thus far. He got killed in game two and he should get killed again here. The Astros are an outstanding offense against left handed starters with a 124 wRC+ during the regular season and I just don’t trust him. The bullpen will be without Craig Kimbrel which could be considered a good or a bad thing. I just think the Astros are going to come out swinging today. They were two great defensive plays and a crazy umpire call from winning big yesterday.

Bet Astros -1.5 (+109)

The Red Sox offense has been hot though. Justin Verlander might be the most reliable starter left in the playoffs and I expect him to have a good start today. His team needs it and he’s shown up when his team needs it. That said, the Red Sox kill righties and I don’t believe he’ll last very long in this game. I can see this game being 6-4 or something like that again with major runs from both sides. The first four games in this series went over and I think this one will as well.

Bet Red Sox/Astros Over 8

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Brewers vs. Dodgers Game 5, Red Sox vs. Astros Game 4

A 1-2 record last night.

I had my streams crossed last night as the Red Sox and Astros were the easy over while the Brewers and Dodgers were the under.

It took 13 innings, but the Dodgers got the win 2-1. These teams tied, then set and smashed the record for runners left on base in a playoff game. Some of that is pitching, some of that is approach and some of that is bad hitting. I personally felt both teams left runs on the table early. I look back to the second inning when the Dodgers had two on and nobody out as a time when this thing could’ve been ended. The injury to Gio Gonzalez changed this game and the length of it could change this series.

The Astros looked in prime position to win this game, but then Robert Osuna happened. Just an absolute collapse by him as he went a three batter sequence of hit by pitch, hit by pitch (scoring a run) and grand slam. The end.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

The Brewers really needed that game last night. Josh Hader and Corey Knebel are almost definitely not available for this one and that takes the Brewers bullpen from ultimate strength to rollercoaster ride.

To make matters worse, they face Clayton Kershaw tonight at home. He had a 2.58 ERA/3.35 FIP/3.20 xFIP at home during the regular season and is one of the best pitchers in baseball history. That said, the postseason struggles are real. Game one saw him allowing four earned runs in just three innings of work. Not great and his control was an issue. I want to believe he’ll be better here, but I just don’t know. His last month of the season wasn’t great and the playoffs haven’t been great. He could get hit here. Christian Yelich has been cold this postseason, but he is only player to hit multiple homeruns off Kershaw this season.

Wade Miley is a pitcher that I think I know, but I can’t quite get down. He works on the edge of the zone and if hitters are patient, they can have success against him. The Dodgers hitters have not been patient and he looked amazing. He averaged 3.01 BB/9 and the Dodgers haven’t been taking them. They’ll need to change that to have success.

The Brewers will need him because the bullpen is not the strength it was without Knebel and Hader. Jeremy Jeffress has been shaky and I don’t trust Xavier Cedeno and Joakim Soria.

I got burned on the over yesterday, but I am going back to it today. The pitching on both sides is hurting from that long outing yesterday and I truly believe both of these starters can give up 2-3 runs.

Bet Dodgers/Brewers Over 7 Runs

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Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

This is probably the biggest pitching mismatch of the series. Charlie Morton is a huge strikeout pitcher who had his best ever season this year with a 3.13 ERA/3.59 FIP. He had a couple starts this season against Boston with mixed results, but I believe in him in this game.

Rick Porcello? Not so much. He had a 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP this season with 1.27 HR/9. He probably won’t go deep in this game as he’s been used as a reliever and I still maintain that the Red Sox bullpen is a big weakness. Going back to the well here on the Astros.

Bet Astros -150

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