August 17th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

1-0 last night.

A lot of ugly lines today in that awkward -150 to -175 range. These don’t have a ton of value unless they are an absolute sure thing. The system is a fan of the Twins today, but over -160 on the road is a big price to pay and I’m not sure it’s worth that.

The system likes two other games a lot more though. One is over that -150 mark, but it’s such a slam dunk I’d think you could reasonably lay the -1.5 to get a better price if you wanted to. Let’s get into it.

Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

The system is a big fan of Dinelson Lamet here. He has huge strikeout numbers on the season with a 3.86 ERA/3.82 FIP. The starts are limited, but he’s been a better pitcher on the road this season and I like his match-up here. The Phillies have been ravaged by injuries this season with Rhys Hoskins the latest to go down.

He faces Zach Eflin who is a pitcher I feel okay going against. He has a 4.49 ERA/4.84 FIP on the season with a 1.60 HR/9. The Padres offense has been playing well of late and they do have power.

Bet Padres -111

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

This is the game that I mentioned above and the system just really loves it. And why not? Mike Foltynewicz has been terrible this season with a 6.24 ERA/5.82 FIP and he’s facing one of the best offenses against right handed pitchers in all of baseball. I’m surprised this line isn’t -200.

The Dodgers send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound and while he has been worse on the road this season, he is far better than Folty. His road numbers have him at a 2.22 ERA/3.54 FIP.

This tip is all about the Dodgers vs. Foltynewicz though and that is enough for me.

Bet Dodgers -154

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August 16th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

Just one tip today.

Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

TeamNameFIP-
TwinsJake Odorizzi83
RangersMike Minor83

Mike Minor has had a great season this year, but he draws an extremely tough match-up here. The Twins have been one of the top hitting teams in all of baseball against left handed pitchers with a 120 wRC+. Minor is having a good season at home with a 3.19 ERA/3.24 FIP, but this park can be very hitter friendly and I don’t trust the bullpen behind him.

He faces off with Jake Odorizzi who has been a big part of the Twins’ success this year. He has been better on the road with a 3.63 ERA/3.82 away from home. The difference here is that the Rangers are a below average team against right handed pitchers and they have been particularly cold of late. The Rangers bullpen is also significantly worse than the Twins.

Bet Twins -109

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August 7th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

I meant to get these up earlier, but life got in the way. Summers are crazy.

The system has just one tip today.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYPhilliesJason Vargas107
HOMEDiamondbacksZac Gallen83

The Phillies traded for Jason Vargas who hasn’t been great this season. He’s been especially bad in his road starts with a 5.22 FIP on the road. The Diamondbacks have been great against lefties all season and I really like them here today.

Arizona is debuting Zac Gallen, a young pitcher they traded for from the Marlins. Not the biggest sample size on him, but he has been very solid thus far. I am expecting good things from him today and his offense to build a nice lead early.

Bet Diamondbacks -143

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July 31st, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 2-1 record at SBT last night.

Today is the MLB trade deadline. The final time to make trades is 4PM Eastern time and after that there will be no more trades. This is unlike past years when you could still make waiver trades in August. The MLB changed the rules on this for this season so this will be the last chance we see for teams to make moves.

It’s been a weird deadline so far as the two biggest moves have gone to sub-.500 teams. The Mets added Marcus Stroman from the Jays, but they have a 51-55 record and are five games out of the Wild Card.

Last night saw the Reds add Trevor Bauer from the Indians. The Reds have one of the best rotations in baseball now, but they are 49-56 and 6.5 games out of the Wild Card. They have one of the better run differentials in the National League, but there are seven teams in front of them.

The other half of that trade is more interesting as the Indians add Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes which immediately upgrades their offense. The Indians have been gaining on the Twins for months now and it will be interesting to see how the Twins react.

Hopefully we see some big moves over the next few hours. Until then, let’s get to the tips.

Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

TeamNameFIP-
AWAYAstrosJose Urquidy59
HOMEIndiansZach Plesac111

The stats on these two pitchers is a bit misleading as they have not made a ton of starts on the season, but their underlying stats match well with what you see above and I feel reasonably strong about them.

Plesac has a 3.10 ERA/5.14 FIP with low strikeouts and high walks. He is due for some regression as he’s been far luckier than good. The Astros offense is great against right handed pitchers with a 121 wRC+. I am expecting that regression to come in a hurry for Plesac here tonight.

Jose Urquidy has only made a few starts this year, but he’s been very good with high strikeouts. The Indians offense has been right around average this season, but they should continue to get better when their new additions get there. They aren’t there yet though and I think Urquidy can have a nice start here.

Bet Astros -143

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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYCubsKyle Hendricks85
HOMECardinalsMiles Mikolas98

This is a classic home/road tip. Most pitchers are different away from home and these two are no exception.

On the season, Kyle Hendricks has a 4.91 ERA/4.55 FIP in his road starts this season and the Cards offense has really been cooking of late. Hendricks has a 1.4 HR/9 rate on the road this season which could hurt him here.

Miles Mikolas isn’t having as great of a season as he did last year, but he’s been very good at home. He has a 2.15 ERA/3.36 FIP at home this year. He’s been a bit lucky, but I like him here as the Cubs offense has been ice cold of late. They only managed one run last night and they have a 73 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Bet Cardinals +101

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July 27th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 1-1 record last night.

The Braves came through big for us last night to grab the win. Jake Arrieta did exactly what we’d expect as he allowed five runs (four earned) in five innings of work. That’s about all it took as the Braves pitching staff showed up big despite only 4.2 innings from Mike Soroka.

I was wrong about the Yankees and James Paxton though as he got hit hard in the Yanks loss. The Red Sox offense is on some kind of run the last couple of days and I’m not sure there is a pitcher in this league that could’ve stopped them with the way they’e been playing.

A typical Saturday with a few early games and a few late. The system likes two picks.

Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYBravesMax Fried89
HOMEPhilliesZach Eflin102

The Braves send another lefty to the mound in Max Fried tonight and I like what we’ve been seeing from him. He has a 4.08 ERA/3.87 FIP on the year and holds good strikeout potential. The Phillies have just a 93 wRC+ against lefties on the season.

Philly will send Zach Eflin to the mound who has a 4.25 ERA/4.57 FIP on the year. He has decent strikeouts and a 1.47 HR/9. He’s not the kind of guy that will kill you, but he really isn’t inspiring a lot of confidence here. The Braves have a 103 wRC+ against right handed pitchers on the year.

Bet Braves -119

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San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYGiantsShaun Anderson112
HOMEPadresCal Quantrill97

This is a classic home/road split tip.

Shaun Anderson has been decent for the Giants this season, but his away from home starts have been a bit rough. He has a 5.45 ERA/5.17 FIP in away games with low strikeouts and 1.64 HR/9. Not a great combination. The Padres offense has a 101 wRC+ against lefties on the season.

San Diego will send Cal Quantril who has a 3.76 ERA/4.21 FIP. Not the most impressive numbers, but I like the match-up as the Giants have just a 74 wRC+ against lefties on the season.

Bet Padres -131

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July 26th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

Back for Friday with a full slate of games. I am running a bit late today so I am going to make this a quick one.

Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYBravesMike Soroka71
HOMEPhilliesJake Arrieta110

Jake Arrieta is experiencing the slow decline that any veteran pitchers go to. His strikeouts are down for the second straight year and his walks and strikeouts are up this season. He faces a dangerous Braves offense here and I don’t love his chances.

The Braves send Mike Soroka who is having an outstanding season with a 2.46 ERA/3.09 FIP on the year. I was surprised to see this line so low and I’m all over it here.

Bet Braves -136

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New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYYankeesJames Paxton82
HOMERed SoxAndrew Cashner99

If that last one made no sense, this one really makes no sense.

Andrew Cashner has made two starts for Boston and he’s allowed nine total runs across the two starts. He’s made two starts this season against the Yankees and has been hit hard in both. The Yankees on the season have a 117 wRC+ against right handed pitchers.

The Yankees send James Paxton who is still a very good pitcher. His 4.20 ERA/3.93 FIP is much higher than last year, but the strikeout stuff is still there. I think he does well here as the Red Sox offense, while very good, is much worse against lefties with just a 90 wRC+ on the season.

Bet Yankees -124

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July 19th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

1-0 on Wednesday, 1-0 yesterday at SportsBettingTips.org. A nice turnaround from early in the week. 17-10 this month. 103-63 on the season.

This is a weird schedule tonight with four games of lines of -240 or higher. Some really lopsided match-ups heading into the weekend. Despite that, we have a couple of nice tips today.

Let’s get into them.

Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYPhilliesJake Arrieta112
HOMEPiratesJordan Lyles102

Jake Arrieta is really struggling this year with an FIP over 5. He has a road line of 4.81 ERA/5.18 FIP with homeruns being an issue. He is just not the pitcher he was a couple of years ago and this Pirates offense has been good against right handed pitchers with a 103 wRC+.

The Pirates will send Jordan Lyles to the mound here and he’s probably due for some regression. He has a 5.16 ERA/4.44 FIP on the season. That isn’t the prettiest, but he is at home here and the Phils are a below average team against righties with a 92 wRC+.

Bet Pirates -110

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Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYAthleticsChris Bassitt98
HOMETwinsJake Odorizzi81

How do you not just bet the Twins every night? This team has been so good this season and tonight is another great match-up for them.

Jake Odorizzi has been great for the Twins this season and his home numbers are great. He has a 2.27 ERA/3.51 FIP in his home starts and he has some huge strikeout numbers there. While the Athletics offense is good and can get him to regress a little bit, the Twins offense is far more dangerous.

The Athletics send Chris Bassitt and he has a 4.43 ERA/4.88 FIP on the road this season. He has some nice strikeout numbers, but is carrying just a .250 BABIP. That won’t last and this Twins offense is exactly the kind that can make him regress. They have a 111 wRC+ on the season and have been even hotter than that over the past two weeks. The Twins look like a great play again here today.

Bet Twins -126

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July 17th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A tough 0-2 last night at SportsBettingTips.

Despite the rough couple of days, we are still in really good shape. Including those losses we are now 15-10 in July for +4.25 units.

On the season, our record is 101-63-3 which is a 61.59% winning percentage and +22.22 units. Every month has been a winning month thus far this year and I see that continuing. The system is very strong and gets stronger the more of a data sample we put into it. If you are betting our tips, you are consistently making money.

I added the complete records for all of months to the sidebar if any of you would like to check it out. I also updated the look as some people were having trouble with certain sections on mobile. Let me know if you have any issues with the update in the comments below.

On to today’s tips.

Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYDodgersKenta Maeda100
HOMEPhilliesNick Pivetta131

This pick is all about Nick Pivetta and the Dodgers offense. Pivetta has a 5.81 ERA/5.75 FIP with a 2+ HR/9 rate. That is not the kind of stats you want to have heading into a match-up with the Dodgers. The Dodgers are one of the best hitting teams against right handed pitchers in the league with a 118 wRC+ against righties this season. When you throw in the Phillies bullpen, that has an awful 146 FIP- over the past two weeks, the Dodgers look like a great pick here.

While Kenta Maeda doesn’t have the best road stats, they are still better than Pivetta. Plus, the Phillies offense is below average against righties with just a 92 wRC+. This team has had a ton of injuries on the offense end and they are just not as scary as they once were. The Dodgers are a great play here.

Bet Dodgers -142

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July 14th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 2-0 record last night.

It was a close one between the Astros and Rangers as the Astros blew their one-run lead in the seventh to send this thing to extra innings. It took until the 11th inning, but we got the win. José Altuve had a big game, going 4-for-6 with three runs scored and what would turn out to be the game winning RBI.

Our other win was a nice underdog play as the Twins beat the Indians on the road. We liked the red hot Twins offense to score some runs on Trevor Bauer and they did exactly that, tagging him for three in the first two innings. Jake Odorizzi only allowed one run in the start and the bullpen did the rest. Twins win 6-2.

A bit rushed this morning and just two tips for the later games. Good luck everyone.

Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYBravesMike Soroka71
HOMEPadresCal Quantrill110

This line is a bit high, but I really like Mike Soroka in this match-up. He’s been great this season by allowing almost no homeruns in his starts and has a 2.42 ERA/3.09 FIP. This is a classic pitcher’s park and this offense doesn’t scare me in the slightest.

Cal Quantrill is a nice prospect, but this is not a good match-up for him. He has a 4.83 ERA/4.76 FIP on the year and this Braves offense is very powerful, and very good against lefties. The line is a little high, but I have to go with the Braves here.

Bet Braves -147

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYDodgersHyun-Jin Ryu67
HOMERed SoxDavid Price63

Another great on paper match-up, but this one is really spoiled by the home road splits. David Price has been an absolute beast at home this season with a 3.06 ERA/1.90 FIP. He’s done a great job of keeping the ball in the park at Fenway, no easy task, and has actually been rather unlucky based on his ERA/FIP differential. He is due for some positive regression and this Dodgers offense is cold right now.

Ryu is due for some regression in the opposite direction. He has a 2.98 ERA/3.95 FIP in his road starts this year and has an ugly 1.39 HR/9 rate away from home. The Red Sox offense has some serious power and are hitting the ball really well right now. I think the Red Sox take the series here.

Bet Red Sox -106

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July 13th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 1-0 record last night.

We took the Red Sox over the Dodgers and this was an easy one. The Red Sox scored three off of Kenta Maeda as we’d hoped and then they really piled it on against the bullpen for an 8-1 win.

We also had the Cardinals with Adam Wainwright over the Diamondbacks, but he ended up being scratched to refund the bet.

Another full slate today, but the Bet MLB System only likes two games tonight. Let’s get into them.

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYTwinsJake Odorizzi77
HOMEIndiansTrevor Bauer89

Today I learned, Odorizzi has a lower season FIP than Trevor Bauer. A big reason for that is the real struggles that Bauer has had at home this season. Some big homerun numbers, 4+ walks per nine and a 4.96 ERA/5.06 FIP. He’s facing one of the very best offenses in baseball this season and a team that is looking to prove that the AL Central now belongs to them.

I’m not sure I believe that Odorizzi is the better pitcher here, but the 3.15 ERA/3.58 FIP is for real. The Indians are a below average offense on the season and I think the Twins are a great play here.

Bet Twins +130

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYAstrosWade Miley96
HOMERangersMike Minor79

Mike Minor has been very good at home this season and very good to us as bettors, but I am not sure I see it here tonight. The Astros are a dangerous offense against lefties and he’s had some luck with his 2.34 ERA/2.82 FIP at home. I still like him quite a bit, just not today and his bullpen is unlikely to do him many favors.

The Rangers haven’t been very good against lefties this year. Wade Miley has had some great luck this season, but he’s still pretty solid with a 3.28 ERA/4.33 FIP.

This match-up is a battle of left-handed pitchers, but the battle of the offenses against left-handed pitchers is a much more interesting one. The Astros have a 134 wRC+ against left handed pitchers on the season while the Rangers sit at just 83 wRC+. I believe that makes up for the difference between Minor and Miley, and the Astros are a good bet here.

Bet Astros -132

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