No tips today

An 0-1 record last night.

The Rays gave up five runs in a hurry in their game against the Red Sox led by Andrew Benintendi‘s grand slam in the second. The Rays actually crawled back to tie this one late, but the Red Sox ended up pulling it out.

No tips today. Nothing really jumped out at me on the schedule.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

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April 20th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 3-0 record last night.

I hope everyone has some green to spread around on 4/20 after last night’s 3-0 record. Judging the starting pitchers by their 2019 stats thus far worked out very well on the first day. Although there is always some noise in that.

We had the White Sox over the Tigers. I really like Carlos Rodon here and thought the Sox would hit Jordan Zimmerman. The Tigers starter Zimmerman only allowed one run through the first six innings, but in the seventh trouble hit. He ended up being charged with five runs and the White Sox won 7-3.

The Brewers game was an even bigger surprise. Jhoulys Chacin had a nice start and this game was tied late. The Brewers went to Josh Hader, last year’s most dominating reliever, and he… gave up three runs. A surprise for sure, but it’s what we wanted so I’m happy with it.

Finally, we had Seattle. The Mariners were up 3-1 heading into the 8th and for some reason tried to push it with Marco Gonzales. He ended up being charged with two runs and we had a tie game. Back-to-back homeruns from Tim Beckham and Omar Navarez off Cody Allen put the Ms ahead for good.

I would say that was a good Friday. I am writing these up late on Friday with the idea of hitting these early games, but it doesn’t look like that’s in the cards. There were a few games I flirted with, but I can only really go with this one tip below. No need to force it when we are doing so well.

As always, take special notice of the pitchers as they are always subject to change overnight. Let’s take a look at what we have.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:

The Rays have been one of the best teams in baseball to start the season while the Red Sox have been one of the biggest disappointments. This isn’t a Mariners/Astros situation either, the Rays very well may be the best team in the American League East.

Rick Porcello‘s struggles have been a big part of that with a 11.12 ERA/7.96 FIP on the early season. The walks have been a huge issue with 12 of them in 11 innings. He’s also allowed three homeruns in three starts. I expect him to get better (he is still on my fantasy team), but this just isn’t the match-up for it.

Charlie Morton was the Rays big offseason acquisition and thus far he has been worth the money. He’s carried over his strikeout numbers from last season to the number and posted a 2.18 ERA/3.06 FIP. Boston’s offense has been a huge disappointment early with just an 80 wRC+. I’m all over the Rays here.

Bet Rays -142

April 19th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

An 0-1 record last night.

The Phillies offense was shutdown last night and were unable to beat the Rockies. This is what happens when your top four hitters go a combined 0-for-14. I probably underrated Kyle Freeland a bit here, but I think this game was a good value overall.

I decided to experiment tonight with using some current season stats for the starters. I tried to adjust if any were truly ridiculous one way or the other, but for the most part I’m taking guys based on what they’ve done. Most starters have at least three starts so we are getting there. I’ll see how this goes over the weekend as the goal is to get to all current season stats by sometime next month.

Friday means a full slate with every team in action. Let’s get into it.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:

I am a big fan of what Carlos Rodon has done early this season and I think it continues here against the Tigers. Rodon has posted a 3.27 ERA/1.83 FIP in three starts this year with very impressive strikeout numbers. I don’t think these are empty numbers either as he’s really increased his slider usage and that pitch is a dangerous pitch from him. This is a nice match-up as the Tigers have posted just a 63 wRC+ on the season thus far.

I got burned going against Jordan Zimmerman a couple of times early this season, but in his last start he showed what I think he should be in certain match-ups when he gave up five runs on eight hits to the Twins. I think he is an exploitable pitcher as he has low strikeouts and allows the long ball. The White Sox offense isn’t perfect, but they can send one out of the park.

Bet White Sox -105

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

A rematch of last year’s National League Championship Series and I’m expecting a similar result tonight. Jhoulys Chacin goes for Milwaukee and in his last start, also against the Dodgers, he allowed six runs on three walks and six hits in 2.1 innings. He’s made four starts this year and his BB/9 and HR/9 are looking terrible. The Dodgers offense is always threatening.

Ross Stripling is nothing special overall, but he did just throw eight innings of four-hit, one-run ball against this Brewers team in his last start.

The recency bias stats are jumping off the page here and I have a hard time going against LA here.

Bet Dodgers -119

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

The Mariners broke out of their prolonged hitting slump in a big way against the Angels last night and I could see that rolling over here. Felix Pena is yet to make it through the fifth inning in any of his three starts this season. The Mariners offense is very capable of taking him deep which has been a problem in two of his three starts.

My big reason for this pick though is Marco Gonzales who has been great for Seattle this season. I don’t love his low strikeout numbers, but a 3.19 ERA/3.39 FIP is pretty good in this league. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s facing an Angels offense that has slashed a batting line of .215/.305/.350. Going with the Mariners to continue the onslaught they started last night.

Bet Mariners -110

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April 18th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 2-1 record last night.

We took the Nationals over the Giants and the box score makes this one look much closer than it was. The Nationals lead 9-2 heading into the ninth, but the bullpen coughed up four runs to make it 9-6. An easy win.

The same thing happened in our pick of the Rangers over the Angels and this one got pretty scary at the end. The Rangers led 5-2 in the eighth, but then the Angels added one. Then they added another in the ninth and I was starting to get nervous. Jose Leclerc figured it out though and got the save to secure the win.

Our one loss was the Astros ten-game winning streak ending at Oakland. There were multiple opportunities in this one, but Frankie Montas had a great start and the Athletics bullpen of Lou Trivino and Blake Treinen did the rest.

Just one tip for tonight.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:

The Phillies offense has been absolutely killing it thus far this season and I’m exciting to see how they do in Coors Field tonight. Kyle Freeland is a good pitcher with some rough results early. His walks have really been a problem and the Phillies offense has done very well against lefties thus far this season.

He goes against Zach Eflin who has a 3.94 ERA/4.29 FIP with big strikeout numbers. Coors Field is always a worry, but this Rockies offense has just been horrible. They have been the worst offense in baseball thus far with a .210/.268/.343 batting line. That is so bad and I am all over the Rockies here.

Bet Phillies -115

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April 17th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 2-0 record last night with two shutouts.

We took the Cubs over the Marlins as Jose Quintana did just what I thought he would do. He went seven innings with seven strikeouts and completely shut down this weak Marlins offense. Javier Baez had a great game going 3-for-4 with an RBI and two runs scored.

Our other pick was the Rangers as this team remained hot. A great game from Mike Minor as he threw a complete game and had seven strikeouts. Joey Gallo went deep with a homerun again here and supplied all the offense they needed going 2-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

Jeff Samardzija has had some good starts this year and proven me wrong. I’m interested to see how he fares on the road here against a good offense. He has a 1.62 ERA/2.66 FIP/4.79 xFIP on the season so he has been somewhat lucky. This is just his second road start of the year with his first being against the Padres. That’s a pretty pitcher friendly park and this one could turn out much differently for him.

The Nationals will send Jeremy Hellickson who had a 3.45 ERA/4.22 FIP last season. He doesn’t have the type of profile I usually look for in these picks, but I just have no faith in this Giants offense whatsoever. They have one of the worst offenses in baseball thus far this season with just a 55 wRC+. I think they make Hellickson look like an ace today.

Bet Nationals -129

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

This Rangers team is really growing on me right now. Lance Lynn posted a 4.77 ERA/3.84 FIP last season which kind of underrates him. He was a late signing last year and took a while to round into form. He ended up having a great second half and has picked up where he left off. His strikeouts are still up, but he’s dropped his walks lower and he draws a great match-up against this Angels offense that has just a 80 wRC+ on the season.

He goes against Matt Harvey and he has had a rough start to the season. Three starts and a 10.05 ERA/7.12 FIP. Yikes. He posted a 4.94/4.57 last season and it seems the move to the American League has been unkind to him. I don’t expect this hot Rangers offense to be any less kind to him here.

Bet Rangers -134

Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:

The Astros are on kind of a West Division revenge tour right now. They beat up on the Mariners to bring them back to earth and they are now sitting at 4-0 on the season against the Athletics. They’ll send Wade Miley to the mound tonight who got the win in a game against them already this year with 5.2 shutout innings. He’s backed up by a bullpen that has posted a 2.72 ERA/2.90 FIP thus far this season.

The Athletics send Frankie Montas who was pretty good last season with a 3.88 ERA/3.90 FIP. The thing with him is that he is not lasting deep. He’s a five inning, six tops pitcher. This Astros offense is dangerous 1-9 and I just don’t trust the Athletics bullpen against the Astros team right now. It might take awhile, but I think the Astros roll here.

Bet Astros -110

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April 16th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 1-1 record last night.

I think we might be underrating the Rangers. They burned us over the weekend when we bet the Athletics and they burned us last night when we bet the Angels. I mentioned in the write-up that the Angels bullpen had been above average to start the year, but last night they gave up eight runs to this offense. Throw in the four that Trevor Cahill gave up and that is a tough deficit to come back from. Joey Gallo had a big game with a homerun and a double.

The Mets were able to grab the win for us. This was another tough one with the pitching and bullpens as the Mets kept getting leads and then letting them go. This one ended up going extras and the Mets were able to get an RBI from Michael Conforto and a shutdown save from Edwin Diaz to grab us the win.

A full slate today. Let’s take a look at today’s games.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins Betting Tips:

Last night we saw Yu Darvish finally right the ship with a great start against the Marlins. I am expecting the same thing from Jose Quintana here tonight. He’s had exccellent strikeout numbers in his three starts this year, but he has had a horrible BABIP and a high HR/9 rate. This is a very pitcher friendly ballpark and the Marlins are not a dangerous offense whatsoever. If he’s ever going to have a good start, tonight’s the night.

Pablo Lopez goes for the Marlins and he’s not someone that the Cubs offense is likely to be afraid of. He had a 4.14 ERA/4.49 FIP last season and is hittable. The Cubs offense has played well and I think they continue to do so here.

Bet Cubs -133

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

If you can’t beat them, join them. Mike Minor is a pitcher I’ve had doubts about because of his extreme fly ball nature. That doesn’t always work out well in this home park, but I really like that against this offense. The Angels offense as a team is slugging just .357 on the season.

Jaime Barria has only pitched 2.2 innings this year and this could be a rude introduction to starting against a red hot offense. Last year he had a 3.41 ERA/4.58 FIP and had some good luck with BABIP and LOB%. He’s a low strikeout, 3+ BB/9 guy which is the profile I like to go against. It’s also just hard to go against the Rangers right now.

Bet Rangers -118

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April 15th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 1-2 record last night.

Last night we had maybe our worse loss of the season. We took the Athletics on the road over the Rangers. Entering the 7th inning it was 7-3, Athletics. Entering the 8th it was 7-4, Athletics. Entering the 9th inning it was 8-7, Rangers. Sigh. In the seventh, the Rangers had a win expectancy of just 6.1%. That one hurt.

We also had the Mets over the Braves and the bullpens hurt us again here. Jacob deGrom didn’t have a great start, but the bullpen really exacerbated things with an additional four runs allowed and put this one out of reach.

Thankfully, we had the Cardinals who won 9-5. Marcel Ozuna hit two homeruns, and Matt Carpneter and Tyler O’Neill also went deep.

A few games I’m liking today. The NBA Playoffs started this week and I’m writing tips every day over at NBATips.net. Check that out if you’re interested, but for now here’s today’s MLB tips.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

The Mets burned us yesterday, but I am going back to the well here. The reason is Aaron Nola. He’s a very good pitcher, but he has been hit very hard in his last two starts. He’s allowed five homeruns and ten earned runs over the past two starts while only striking out five. Something is off with him right now and I am not trusting him right now.

Noah Syndergaard will go to the mound for the Mets and he’s been very good to start the year. He’s had some bad ERA luck, but his strikeout numbers are major and he’s done a good job limiting walks and homeruns.

Bet Mets +100

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

The Bet MLB System really, really hates Shelby Miller here. He’s made two starts this year and only pitched 5.2 innings with six runs allowed. He’s had a rough couple of years and even the kindest projections see him as a 5+ ERA guy.

Trevor Cahill is a very solid starter. He had a 3.76 ERA/3.54 FIP last season and he’s picked up where he left off thus far this season. The Angels have ranked as one of the better bullpens thus far this season so hopefully a repeat of yesterday isn’t in the cards here.

Bet Angels -124

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April 14th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 2-0 record last night as the Rangers/Athletics game was rained out.

We took the Royals over the Indians as a slight underdog yesterday. The Indians offense has just been a mess without Francisco Lindor early and that continued yesterday as they managed just two hits against Homer Bailey. The Royals offense scraped together a couple of wins and got the win here. Jose Ramirez ended up playing here, but he’s probably not 100% as he’s hitting just .135 on the season with two RBIs. That’s the Indians thus far in a nutshell.

Our other pick was the Washington Nationals who got a fine pitching performance from Anibal Sanchez, but were still down 2-1 in the seventh. A two-run homerun from Howie Kendrick changed all that and the Nationals bullpen was able to hold on for the win.

I was hoping to have these tips up a couple of hours ago, but the internet in my area was down since last night. Very frustrating when you need to pull data for the day’s starters. It’s up now and I have a few picks on the day’s games.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

The system likes an over here again, but not quite as much as yesterday. The Rangers haven’t been quite as good against lefties this year and there is a big difference between Brett Anderson and Marco Estrada. Anderson posted a 4.48 ERA/4.17 FIP last season and is very good at getting hitters to hit groundballs. In a hitter friendly park like this, that is key.

Same pitcher for the Rangers today that was supposed to go yesterday in Adrian Sampson. Just not a fan of this guy at all and I think he’ll let up some homeruns here. He’s a journeyman pitcher for a reason and I don’t see him doing much to stop this Athletics offense.

While the over is appealing, I have to go with just the Athletics to win here.

Bet Athletics -138

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:

I just can’t in good conscience not tip this game. The Reds offense has just a .623 OPS against righties on the season and Miles Mikolas is a righty! Mikolas has had his share of struggles early, but he’s faced some tough offenses in Milwaukee and Los Angeles. This should be a match-up where he can get the ERA down a bit.

Anthony DeSclafani posted a 4.93 ERA/4.83 FIP last season and 1.88 HR/9. This Cards offense has some boppers and they’ve been playing well of late. The total on this one is set pretty high and I have to think that’s mostly Cards based. I am just not buying the Reds offense right now.

Bet Cardinals -115

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

This is my first chance to place a bet on Jacob deGrom this season and I am very excited to do so. Last year he won the Cy Young with a 1.70 ERA/1.99 FIP and 11+ K/9. He was an absolute beast and he’s mostly picked up where he left off in this young season. The Braves offense has played well early, but his strikeout numbers should take a lot of the oomph out of that lineup.

Julio Teheran is a pitcher that I’m not very high on. He posted a 3.94 ERA/4.83 FIP last season which is fine. He had a really low BABIP last season which has come back early. In his last start, he allowed six runs on five hits and three walks over five innings. This Braves offense has a lot of good lefty mashers and I just see this going badly for them. Throw in the shaky bullpen and I’m all over the Mets here.

Bet Mets -141

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April 13th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 1-0 record last night.

We got bailed out by the sportsbook’s rules last night. Took the Yankees -1.5 over the White Sox and the bullpen completely faltered. Then rain came and washed away our sorrows. The game was called after seven innings which means:

…wagers on the over/under, team totals and/or runlines don’t become official until the teams complete nine innings — or the home team leads after 8.5 innings.

I’ve been on the wrong side of this one before so I’ll gladly take it here.

Our other pick was the Red Sox -1.5 over the Orioles. This one gave us a scare as the Red Sox entered the ninth with a 6-2 lead and saw the bullpen surrender an additional two runs. Luckily, Ryan Brasier came in and shut the door to secure the win.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

Annibal Sanchez is not my favorite pitcher out there, but you can’t really argue with his results. He had a 2.83 ERA/3.62 FIP last season and the addition of the cutter really helped his pitch mix. He’s struggled a bit in his first two starts, but those were both against the Phillies and I like his match-up with the Pirates much better. Projections see them as a below average offense on the season and they have fulfilled that thus far.

Chris Archer is a good starter, but he’s also been kind of lucky in his first two starts. A near perfect left on base percentage and a really low BABIP see his FIP projected to be about two runs higher than his current ERA. Yes, it’s early but a 98% LOB% is not realistic. This is also his first road start of the season which I think could cause trouble.

Bet Nationals -115

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

This is more a bet against the Indians offense than anything. This team can into the season with a stars and scrubs plan for the offense and lost Francisco Lindor, and now Jose Ramirez is listed as out for this game. That just leaves the scrubs against Homer Bailey. I’d normally be jumping all over him, but this is a good match-up that is worth the risk. His strikeout numbers have been good thus far and I expect him to bounce back somewhat from that horrible last outing.

I think the Royals offense could do well against Jefry Rodriguez who was called up to make this start. Last year he posted a 5.71 ERA/5.97 FIP. I don’t think it will take much.

Bet Royals +120

Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

Last season Marco Estrada had a 5.64 ERA/5.44 FIP with low strikeouts and a high HR/9 rate. This season he’s basically doing the same with even lower strikeouts and higher HR/9. Yes, it’s early but I don’t think tonight is the night that he gets it right. Texas is a very hitter friendly park and I can see him running into more trouble here.

Adrian Sampson has limited major league experience and it’s mostly not good. A career 4.10 ERA/6.07 FIP across three seasons with low strikeouts and homeruns. I think you can see where I’m going with this one.

Bet Rangers/Athletics Over 10.5 Runs

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April 12th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

An 0-1 record last night.

We took the Rockies last night on the belief that Jon Gray would have his best start of the season. Well, he did. He threw 6.2 innings and allowed just one run with six strikeouts. The only problem is that Jeff Samardzija was better with seven innings, seven strikeouts and zero earned runs. The final score, 1-0. The state of these offenses is just pathetic right now and I probably should’ve just stayed away. The Rockies have a 43 wRC+ thus far this season while the Giants have a 58 wRC+ on the year. When 100 is average, that’s very bad.

Typical Friday night with a full slate. Some fun games that I am really excited for that I’ll be staying away from. Especially excited for the Brewers and Dodgers, and the 13-2 Mariners facing the Astros.

Some of you might not like my tips today as I am laying the runs. It’s just one of those days where all of the lines are matching my system and there is no over/under that jumps out to me. If you like laying the runs though, this is the day for you.

Subscribe to our daily MLB Tips and get an e-mail each day with them, please put your e-mail address in the box below:

Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

I am going to go against Lucas Giolito until he proves me wrong. He had a 6.13 ERA/5.56 FIP last season and got rocked for five runs by the Mariners his last time out. This Yankees offense has some injuries, but it is still a very dangerous group. They are at home here and I like them to put a hurting on Giolito and the Sox here.

The Yankees will send J.A. Happ to the mound and he had a 3.65 ERA/3.98 FIP last season. He’s yet to make it five innings this season which is somewhat worrisome, but that Yankees bullpen is so good that I’m not afraid. Happ is a good pitcher too and I think he’ll start to turn it around sooner rather than later. I’m willing to bet that is tonight.

Bet Yankees -1.5 (-110)

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:

This one is all about David Hess. The Red Sox offense is very potent, but has been a bit quiet this year. I think that Hess can wake them up. He posted a 4.88 ERA/5.80 FIP last season and his career walk rate is 3.24 per nine and he’s allowed over 1.93 HR/9 over the past two seasons. This is a terrible match-up for him and the Red Sox offense should be hitting the ball hard here.

Eduardo Rodriguez goes for the Red Sox and he’s fine. He had a 3.82 ERA/3.65 FIP last season, but he’s struggled in his first two starts this year. He’s going to be bouncing back and pitching like himself again here soon and why not tonight? This Orioles offense should be one of the worst in the league when all is said and done.

This line is slightly here than I’d like when laying the runs, but I really don’t believe that Hess will last long here.

Bet Red Sox -1.5 (-130)

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