June 18th, 2019 MLB Betting TIps

A 1-0 record last night.

We took the scorching Lance Lynn and the Rangers over the Indians last night and he did not disappoint. 7 innings pitcher, 9 strikeouts and only 1 earned run. A beautiful start on a night that the Rangers offense went wild on the Indians for a 7-2 victory.

Our other tip saw the Phillies and Nationals game rained out. They play again today, but they have marked up the line +20 and there is a solid chance of rain again today. So we’ll be skipping that one again.

Just one tip that the system likes today.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:

AWAYRaysRyne Stanek (opener)
HOMEYankeesJ.A. Happ

When I first came across this one in the system today I saw the -153 and skipped right past it as the Yankees were listed as -150 today. A classic system matches the line game except there was just one problem: the Bet MLB System had the Rays at -153, not the Yankees.

Digging a bit deeper, it makes perfect sense. Happ has a 5.35 ERA/6.18 FIP in his home starts this season with homeruns being a real issue. His overall stats aren’t too impressive either with a 4.66 ERA/5.37. Throw in the recent struggles of the Yankees bullpen, a 121 FIP- over the past two weeks, and the Rays offense is looking pretty juicy tonight.

The Rays send Ryne Stanek as the opener and this will be a bullpen game for this. Our system of measuring bullpen games isn’t quite perfect because you never know who you are going to get, but some combination of Stanek+Ryan Yarbrough+ the rest of the Rays bullpen looks pretty good. On the season, the Rays bullpen has a 77 FIP- and is coming in here in good form.

Bet Rays +130


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June 17th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 1-1 record on Saturday.

We were three outs away from a 2-0 night. We took the Braves over the Phillies and they entered the ninth with a 5-4 lead on the Phillies. A single, a sacrifice bunt, an error on that play, and another single lead to two runs and a Phillies win. Flukey.

The other game we took was the Mets over the Cardinals and this one nearly saw the bullpen blow it as well. At the end of the sixth, the Mets had a commanding 8-3 lead. Then they just let the Mets chip away and by the ninth it was 8-6. The Mets added one more and nearly tied it when Jack Flaherty tried to take home on a double, but he was gunned out at the plate to end the game. That Mets bullpen is always an adventure.

No tips yesterday. Back with two tips today.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYPhilliesJake Arrieta114
HOMENationalsPatrick Corbin89

This play is all about Patrick Corbin. He has a respectable 4.11 ERA/3.90 FIP on the season with good strikeout numbers, but it is at home where he has truly shined. In his home starts, he’s posted a 2.32 ERA/2.46 FIP for the season. The Phillies offense is about average versus lefties this season and the offense overall has been quiet of late.

You can’t say that about the Nats who have a 110 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Throw in Jake Arrieta who is having a bad time this year. He has a 4.31 ERA/5.04 FIP on the year, but those numbers are at 4.85 ERA/5.58 FIP over his past five starts. He’s hittbale now. Throw in a Phillies bullpen that has been bad all season and awful of late, and I’m all over the Nats here.

Bet Nationals -135

Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

 TeamNameFIP-
AWAYIndiansMike Clevinger90
HOMERangersLance Lynn64

So, Lance Lynn is awesome now? He has a 4.40 ERA/3.06 FIP with good strikeout numbers and low walks, and a low HR/9 rate. Over his last five starts, he has a 3.45 ERA/1.46 FIP and has jumped his strikeouts over 12K/9. Wow. He faces an Indians offense that has heated up of late, but still has just a .716 OPS/86 wRC+ against right handed pitching this season.

He faced Mike Clevinger who is making just his third start since coming off the injured list. Clevinger had a breakout last year and has looked good thus far this season as he’s yet to allow a run. I think that ends tonight as this Rangers offense can really pack some punch.

Bet Rangers +113

June 15th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 2-0 way back on Monday.

The stats are getting better and forming a fuller picture, and when that happens the lines get better. For the past few days, the lines and the system have been very close which means that the system doesn’t see any value. Ideally, we are looking for a game with the odds around -110 that the system sees at -210. The last few days have been games that are priced at -155 being -160, not a lot of value. So posts might be less frequent during certain times because of this. We are trying to pick winners here.

The Bet MLB System does like two games very much today. Let’s get to those tips now.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:

AWAYCardinalsMichael Wacha
HOMEMetsNoah Syndergaard

Michael Wacha is having a bad season. He has a 5.63 ERA/5.91 FIP with huge walk numbers and a bad HR/9 rate. He’s pitching on the road here which is always tough and his numbers are showing that this Mets offense is going to score some runs today.

He’ll go against Noah Syndergaard who is due for some regression. His strikeout numbers aren’t as big as they once were, but they are still good and he does a great job of keeping walks down. He has a 4.45 ERA/3.48 FIP on the season so he’s due for some good luck at some point. He’s been slightly better in his home starts and the offense he’s facing is below average against righties. I think he has a nice game here.

Bet Mets -138

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies:

AWAYPhilliesAaron Nola
HOMEBravesSean Newcomb

Aaron Nola has been much better of late, but his road numbers are absolutely disastrous. He has a 6.75 ERA/6.00 FIP on the road this season with homeruns being a big factor, and this Braves team can really hit them. Over the last thirty days they’ve hit 49 homeruns which is fifth in the league. Also, the Braves offense is number one in baseball over the last two weeks.

Sean Newcomb goes for the Braves and he’s been lucky and good this season. He has a 2.59 ERA/3.29 FIP on the year. The Phils offense has been cold of late with a .735 OPS/89 wRC+. They are good against lefties, but nothing that is truly scaring me off of this one.

The Braves offense is strong enough right now and the Nola road woes worry me enough to go full on for the Braves here.

Bet Braves -111

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June 10th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

We’re back.

I took the weekend off to spend some time in the beautiful weather outside. Living in Wisconsin, our winters seemingly last forever and they can often be brutal. Sometimes you just have to appreciate the good weather when you get it. We tried to attend Crusher Fest in South Milwaukee, but it was completely insane with far too many people in too small of a space. A fun day, but I didn’t get any good pics with the statue. Sadly.

A short slate today and the Bet MLB System likes two games. Let’s take a look.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

The Diamondbacks will send Taylor Clarke to the mound today and he has been sold in his five games this season with a 4.43 ERA/4.31 FIP. He’s not a dominating choice, but I like him a lot here today against this team.

Jared Eickhoff goes for the Phillies today and he has a 4.95 ERA/4.68 FIP on the season with some ugly HR/9 rates. His home starts have actually been worse this season and it’s hard for me not to like the Diamondbacks today. The bullpen is coming off a very rough two-week stretch and the offense has been quiet as well. While the Diamondbacks aren’t the toughest team out there, they look better in the key categories of bullpen FIP, wrC+, and starter.

Bet Diamondbacks +120

Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:

Yu Darvish has had a rough bounce back from injury this season. He has a 4.88 ERA/5.12 FIP on the season with the walks and homeruns being a big problem for him. You don’t want to have a homerun problem when pitching in Coors Field and I don’t love his chances today.

The Rockies send German Marquez who is perfectly suited for Coors Field. He has a 4.07 ERA/3.40 FIP on the season, but he’s done a great job at inducing a lot of groundballs and keeping the ball in the park. The Rockies bullpen continues to be a strength and I think they can hold on for the win here.

Bet Rockies -128

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June 6th, 2019 MLB Betting TIps

A 1-1 record last night.

Honestly, I should’ve known better with the Brewers. I really like Jimmy Nelson as a pitcher, but the guy was coming off the injured list and making his first start of the season. I shouldn’t have gone with him, but I got into that new toy state of mind. There was a new toy that I hadn’t seen all year and I desperately wanted to play with it. I needed to wait. The Brewers lost.

Luckily, we also had the Mets who dominated in a 7-0 win. The bullpen did their job in this one unlike the night before.

Carlos Carrasco ended up being a scratch for the Indians so that bet was voided.

Some day games and a short slate at night tonight. The Bet MLB System has two picks.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

Trevor Bauer is having a nice season, but for some reason, he has been terrible at home. He has a 5.60 ERA/5.17 FIP in his home starts and the homeruns have really been a problem for him. I know he’s not this bad, but the offense he faces today is really that good. The Twins are atop the American League with a .844 OPS/119 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.

The Twins will send Jose Berrios who has been their ace this season with a 3.27 ERA/3.72 FIP. The Indians offense has been one of the worst in the game against right-handed pitchers with a .699 OPS/83 wRC+. The system is loving the Twins today.

Bet Twins -112

Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

The system continues to hate Mike Fiers. You’ve probably heard this one before, but he has a 5.36 ERA/5.44 FIP on the season and that includes a complete game shutout. He’s not good and the Angels offense has been very good against right-handed pitchers.

Tyler Skaggs goes for the Angels and he’s been decent this year with a 4.50 ERA/4.16 FIP. His home starts have been the best for him where he has a 2.27 FIP. The Angels look like a solid play today.

Bet Angels -122

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June 5th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 2-1 record last night. 74-48 on the season.

A potentially great night last night ruined by the Mets bullpen. We took the Mets over the Giants, but they fell behind early. The Mets had a 3-2 lead when Noah Syndergaard left with a runner on. The bullpen gave up that run to tie the game and it ended up in extra innings. The bullpen then gave up five runs in the tenth to make this game unwinnable. Bad.

We also took the Reds over the Cardinals on the basis of Luis Castillo and the strong bullpen. That turned out to be a good decision as the Cards managed just one run and the Reds won 4-1. The Reds pitching might just turn this into a winning team which is crazy considering where they’ve been the last couple of seasons.

Our final win of the night was the Athletics over the Angels. Griffin Canning was looking very hittable for this Athletics team and they put up four runs on him. Frankie Montas put out a good start for the win.

We’re back with three more picks today. Let’s take a look at what the Bet MLB System has for us today.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets Betting Tips:

I don’t feel regret going back to the Mets after last night, but it’s hard to imagine another meltdown at that level. The Mets send Jason Vargas to the mound. He’s not the typical guy we go with as he has a 4.46 ERA/4.91 FIP, but he is left-handed and the Giants are horrible against lefties. They have just a .631 OPS/68 wRC+ against lefties and I expect him to improve his numbers here.

Tyler Beede has only appeared in four games this year and posted a 7.82 ERA/5.60 FIP. That ERA is way off, but the projections see him right near that FIP. He’s not a good starter. The Mets are a decent hitting team against righties and they look like a solid play today.

Bet Mets -141

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

Speaking of teams that are bad against lefties, the Indians hit for just a .673 OPS/77 wRC+ against southpaws. Martin Perez is probably not this good, but he has a 3.71 ERA/3.71 FIP on the season with decent strikeout numbers. That Indians offense is just not good and hard to back.

The Twins, on the other hand, are really easy to back. Their offense is amazing. Carlos Carrasco has been one of the better pitchers in the game, but this year has not been kind to him. He’s giving up 1.94 HR/9 and has a 4.98 ERA/4.07 FIP on the season. I am not afraid of him here and think the Twins are a great play.

Bet Twins +105

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

I don’t typically like to lay the runs unless I am getting a good number on it, but I am just so sure of this one that I can’t help myself.

Jimmy Nelson is the Brewers ace and he makes his long-awaited return to the team here. You couldn’t ask for a better match-up than the Marlins who are one of the worst offenses in the league.

The Marlins won big against this team last night and I see the Brewers bouncing back strong. Sandy Alcantara goes for the Marlins and he has a 4.08 ERA/4.68 FIP with low strikeouts and high walks. The offense should have something to prove and I think the team will be rejuvenated by the return of Nelson.

Bet Brewers -1.5 (-130)

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June 4th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

An 0-1 record last night.

The Angels did not show up whatsoever in their game against the Cubs yesterday. We were betting on Jon Lester‘s struggles continuing, but the home field was nice to him and he grabbed the win.

We took the Astros over the Mariners, which won, but the Mariners ended up doing a pitching change that voided the play as Wade LeBlanc did not start the game. For those of you that stuck with it, congratulations.

I added a little box to show the probable pitchers so that everyone knows who exactly we are betting on to start. Starters are key.

Three games that the Bet MLB System likes today, let’s take a look at them.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets Betting Tips:

AWAYGiantsMadison Bumgarner
HOMEMetsNoah Syndergaard

Noah Syndergaard is due for regression with a 4.90 ERA/3.62 FIP. He’s been much better than his ERA and he should be able to get it lower against this Giants offense. The Giants have a .675 OPS/80 wRC+ against righties on the season and I’m loving the Mets here.

The Mets have been one of the best teams in the league against left-handed pitchers at the plate. They have a .778 OPS/110 wRC+ against lefties on the season and there is no reason to think they won’t hit Madison Bumgarner here. He has a 4.01 ERA/3.59 FIP on the year and like most pitchers, he is slightly worse on the road.

Bet Mets -138

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:

AWAYRedsLuis Castillo
HOMECardinalsGenesis Cabrera

The Cards send Genesis Cabrera to the mound who did not look good in his first start. Considering he had a 6.35 ERA/6.86 FIP in Triple-A this season, that should be no surprise. The Reds offense is really heating up with a 120 wRC+ over the past two weeks. I’m honestly surprised to see this line so low and the Reds are an outstanding play today.

I’ve touted the success of the Reds bullpen this year and they’ve remained one of the better bullpens in the game. They start their best starter tonight in Luis Castillo and it’s going to be really hard for the Cardinals to score runs today. Castillo has a 2.45 ERA/3.31 FIP with big strikeouts and he’s done a great job of limiting the longball. The Cardinals offense is good, but they have their work cut out for them today.

Bet Reds -124

Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

AWAYAthleticsFrankie Montas
HOMEAngelsGriffin Canning

The Angels have had a rough road as they had a big loss yesterday in Chicago and had to travel to Oakland for another game tonight. This team hasn’t been off in a while and I can see their struggles continuing here.

The Athletics will send Frankie Montas who has been very good this season with a 2.81 ERA/2.87 FIP with a good job keeping the ball in the park. The bullpen behind him is fantastic and I think runs will be hard to come by for the Angels here.

Griffin Canning has been riding a low BABIP and high LOB% to a 3.06 ERA/4.38 FIP. He is due for some regression and the Athletics are a good option to do that to him as they have really been heating up of late.

Bet Athletics -110

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June 3rd, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 1-1 record on Saturday. 72-46 on the season.

I took yesterday off to spend some time with the family. Saturday saw a 1-1 record as the Angels won easily and the Reds didn’t do what we thought of them.

I’m pretty busy with my day job today so I am going to make this one quick. Only five games on the slate today, but the system likes a couple of these quite a bit. One early game and one late. Let’s get into them.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:

I am just not trusting Jon Lester at all right now. His last three starts have looked like this:

DateOppIPTBFHERHR
2019-05-28@HOU5.228871
2019-05-23PHI421742
2019-05-18@WSN4.1231051

Horrible. Four homeruns in three games, *sixteen* earned runs in three games. The Angels have been really hitting the ball well of late (thanks, Mariners) with a 121 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They are coming in hot and I think they hit the ball well today.

The Angels are doing a bullpen game and the last time they did that with Bedrosian leading off for them it worked out pretty well. The Cubs offense is pretty good, but the variety of looks should do well against them here.

I was really thinking of the over here, but the wind is blowing in at Wrigley and I can’t think of a stadium where that might have a bigger effect on the final score. As it is, I’ll just be taking the Angels.

Bet Angels +140

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:

I saw the Astros at -130 and I was immediately drawn to it before I did the system, but then I looked a bit at Corbin Martin‘s numbers and.. ugh. Four starts, six homeruns. He’s only made it more than four innings once and he should be putting a heavy strain on the bullpen. Luckily, the bullpen is the best in baseball.

The Mariners send Wade LeBlanc who has had his share of struggles this season. He has a 4.91 ERA/4.24 FIP on the season and that’s about who he is at this point. He won’t kill you, but he is who he is. The Astros have their injury issues, but they are still the best hitting team against lefties on the season. The Mariners bullpen backing him up is one of the worst with a 5.24 ERA/5.15 FIP.

While Martin does give me some pause, and the Astros injury woes are very real, I still can’t go against the Astros here. They have the bullpen and they have the pedigree against lefties to get it done.

Bet Astros -130

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June 1st, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A 2-0 night last night to finish the month of May strong. That gives us a 34-19 record in May and a 71-45 overall record. For the season we are +12.48 units.

We took the Astros over the Athletics on the assumption that the Astros would pitch well and they would also hit Mike Fiers. It took awhile on the second thing, but the pitching only allowed two runs and the Astros were able to tie it up on Fiers in the 7th. A Derek Fisher homerun in the 8th gave Houston a 3-2 win. You win a lot of games when you allow just two runs, no matter how many stars are on the injured list.

We also had the Reds over the Nationals. The funny thing is this is the one I was nervous about posting and the Reds won 9-3. They tagged Patrick Corbin for five in the first inning and that was all they needed.

One early and one night game pick for today.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

I try my best to treat each game as it’s own separate entity, but it’s hard not to think that if the Reds were able to hit Corbin that hard what they will do to Erick Fedde. He’s done most of his work out of the pen this year and has a 2.18 ERA/4.07 FIP/5.10 xFIP. He’s been riding a low BABIP and he’s not a big strikeout guy. The Reds offense has been getting better of late and I think they continue that here.

Tanner Roark goes for the Reds and I could see him trying to get some measure of revenge against the team that traded him. He’s posted a nice 3.20 ERA/3.00 FIP with nice strikeout numbers. Throw in the awesome Reds bullpen behind him and I can see the Reds taking this series today.

Bet Reds -135

Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:

Andrew Heaney is a pitcher that I like, but he’s been unable to stay healthy. He had a 4.15 ERA/3.99 FIP/3.68 xFIP last season and made his season debut last week with a solid start. He draws the Mariners today who have cooled down considerably since their hot start. They are still a good offense, but I don’t fear them like I once did with starting pitchers.

The Mariners send Tommy Milone to the mound who has been good in his first two starts, but I don’t trust that at all. His projections show him being way below where he’s at right now and his career numbers paint a similar pitcher. The Angels offense can be dangerous and they should get to Milone here. Throw in that awful bullpen that is backing him up and I foresee an Angels win.

Bet Angels -124

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May 31st, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

A tough day yesterday at 0-2. 69-45 on the season.

A rough couple of days here, but we are still way up on the season and I am still believing in the system. Even with the last couple of days we are 32-19 in May for +5.56 units. Things are looking good and if you are betting these tips, you are profiting.

Last night was tough though. We laid the runs with the Rangers and they lost outright 4-2. This offense just couldn’t get it going last night despite facing what I consider to be some very hittable pitchers.

The Mariners are officially on my oh-no-nos list. They were once again in a good position to win and completely got blown out. Anything can happen, but it’s unlikely that we’ll be backing them again this season. That bullpen is just… no.

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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.

Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:

This one was a surprise to me, but the numbers on Patrick Corbin‘s road starts aren’t great (for him) at 3.60 ERA/4.65 and the Great American Ballpark is a dangerous place to play. The Reds offense isn’t my favorite, but they have been slowly heating up and I think they can get a few here. A big part of why the system spit this game out is that the bullpen of the Nationals is once again awful. They’ve really been struggling of late and if the Reds can get Corbin out early, they can win this game.

The Nationals offense is also pretty bad against right handed pitching with a .705 OPS/84 wRC+. Tyler Mahle is a decent pitcher at 4.15 ERA/4.11 FIP, but he does have good strikeout numbers and low walks. The bullpen behind him is pretty great and I like the Reds today.

Bet Reds -110

Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:

I know the Astros offense is beat up, but they are still the Astros and Mike Fiers stinks. He has a 5.00 ERA/5.32 FIP in 12 starts this season and I just want to remind you that one of those starts was a no-hitter. He’s a slow pitcher who can be exposed by a powerful offense. Even without Carlos Correa and George Springer, the Astros are a powerful offense.

Brad Peacock has been great for Houston thus far with a 3.19 ERA/2.96 FIP. He’s also backed up by the best bullpen in baseball in a pitcher friendly park. This line is ridiculous in my opinion, jump on Houston.

Bet Astros -121

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