An 0-2 night last night. 46-32 on the season.
I updated the year to date record on the sidebar with our current record. As of yesterday, we are 46-32. That’s 58.97% winners for +5.5 units. I am really happy with this record, especially considering I haven’t started using the full version of the Bet MLB System yet.
Our close game was the Braves over the Diamondbacks. This was a close game throughout, but the Braves took a 2-1 lead in the top of the ninth and just needed to close it out. They ended up blowing that lead in the bottom of the ninth and then losing it in the tenth. The Braves need to sign Craig Kimbrel already.
We had the over in the Mariners and Yankees game, but we got an absolutely masterful pitching performance from the Yankees as they allowed just one hit. JA Happ was probably due for a good start and he got it in spades here.
A full schedule tonight with three picks, let’s get into it.
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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
The Twins are killing it right now and they draw a great match-up at home against Tyson Ross. He has a 5.34 ERA/5.14 FIP on the season with low strikeouts and high walks, that’s the kind of starter we’re always looking to target and this is a great spot for it.
Jake Odorizzi goes for the Twins and he’s had a great start to the season with a 2.78 ERA/3.08 FIP. The Tigers offense has just a .662 OPS with a 78 wRC+ on the year.
The offensive differences between these teams is clear and the bullpen difference is nearly as extreme. I am trusting the Twins big time here and laying the runs.
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
This should be a good one. Julio Teheran goes for the Braves and he is not a guy I trust all that much. He has a 4.63 ERA/4.79 FIP on the year and walks and homeruns can be a problem for him. While the Diamondbacks send Zack Greinke, one of the best pitchers of the modern era, who has been solid with a 3.42 ERA/3.69 FIP but can be gotten with homeruns.
I can see these two leaving the game in a 3-3 or 4-2 type of score and turning things over to the bullpen and that’s where I think the over comes in. The Braves bullpen has a 4.46 ERA/4.85 FIP while the Diamondbacks have a 4.59 ERA/4.80 FIP. Not good and they give me a lot of confidence in this over.
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
When I was importing my stats today I saw something that I hadn’t noticed before, the Reds bullpen is awesome. They are the 5th best in ERA with a 3.48 ERA/3.56 FIP. Throw in the fact that Luis Castillo starts today and he has a 1.97 ERA/2.87 FIP with huge strikeout numbers. Throw in the Giants .683 OPS against right handed pitchers and this looks like a great spot to grab the Reds.
The Giants send Dereck Rodriguez who has a 5.75 ERA/6.10 FIP on the season. While the Reds offense ranks very low, they have been hitting much better of late and I feel like this team (for whatever reason) always takes a bit to heat up. All over the Reds today.
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