May 14th, 2018 MLB Betting Tips

An awesome 3-1 night last night.

I hate Juan Nicasio. We had the James Paxton 16 strikeout game awhile back. He left with a 2 run lead (covering the -1.5) and Nicasio came in and allowed a two-run homerun. Yesterday, Paxton wasn’t as good but this game was 4-4 in the 9th. Not a great chance for us at -1.5, but the away team can score unlimited runs in extras. What happened? Nicasio came in, recorded 0 outs, allowed three hits and gave the Tigers the win. I hate that guy.

We played dice with the devil last night and won as we took the under on a Coors Field game. This one really had me biting my nails at the end as it was 7-3 late, but the Brewers bullpen did the job. That one felt good as Freddy Peralta had a historic first start with 13 strikeouts.

Corey Kluber and the Indians over the Royals was never in doubt as it finished 11-2. The Braves over the Marlins was closer than we’d like, but they got the win.

3-1 ends a winning week and it feels good. Now let’s do it again.

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Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:

Last season, Carlos Carrasco was 4-1 in six starts against the Tigers with a 1.82 ERA, 1.109 WHIP and 10.2 K/9. He faced them once this season and threw a complete game with just one run allowed, three hits and two walks. I think it’s safe to say that he owns this iteration of the Tigers.

Mike Fiers doesn’t have as much blowout potential as I would like, but he does have a 5ish FIP on the season after posting a 5.43 FIP last season. He is what he is at this point. The Indians offense has been crushing the ball lately and I’m feeling really good about laying the runs.

Bet Indians -1.5 (-135) at:

USA: Bovada
Canada: Sports Interaction
UK: 888Sport
Everywhere Else: 5Dimes

Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:

Sean Manaea threw a no-hitter this season, but his last two starts have been rough for him. He allowed four runs in each, but that was against the Mariners and Astros; two of the best offenses in the AL. He gets a much better match-up today against the… Boston Red Sox?

Yes, Boston. They have just a .670 OPS against lefties this year and their wRC+ is a sad 77.

Rick Porcello is having a nice season, but he’s coming off a rough start against the Yankees. The Athletics are 11th in OPS against righties this year. I feel reasonably into Oakland today as the Sox haven’t hit lefties at all, Manaea is a good one and the Oakland offense is sneaky dangerous. This is a good value on the underdog.

Bet Oakland +137 at:

USA: Bovada
Canada: Sports Interaction
UK: 888Sport
Everywhere Else: 5Dimes

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:

Patrick Corbin has been amazing thus far this season. He has a 2.12 ERA/2.93 FIP/2.47 xFIP on the season and is averaging nearly 12 strikeouts per game. The leap he has made this season is a big part of why the Diamondbacks are running away with the NL West. He faces a Brewers offense that has a .633 OPS against lefties on the season which ranks 29th out of 30 teams. Yikes.
I think that number will come up (Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain should all start hitting lefties better as the season goes on), but I don’t think that happens here tonight. Corbin is rolling right now.

The Brewers send Junior Guerra to the mound and he’s in a bad spot of late. He’s coming off back to back to starts allowing 4+ runs. His walks have been up and he’s allowed three homeruns in those last two starts. Arizona doesn’t have the greatest OPS against righties, but there is some serious meltdown potential here and I think the Diamondbacks win those one tonight.

Bet Diamondbacks -136 at:

USA: Bovada
Canada: Sports Interaction
UK: 888Sport
Everywhere Else: 5Dimes

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