A 1-1 record last night. 52-34 on the season.
We took the Twins last night and Jose Berrios had his worst start of the season. He was just pounded by the Angels offense with 12 hits allowed and five earned runs. I talk a lot about BABIP in this one and how someone has been lucky or unlucky with it. Well, Berrios had a .455 BABIP yesterday. Yikes.
Our win last night was the Mariners over the Athletics. This one took some different turns than I expected, but the Mariners offense persevered and grabbed the win. They took this game to extra innings and then Domingo Santana tied it up with two outs and Omar Navarez drove him in to get the win.
We also took the Yankees, but that game was rained out.
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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
Kyle Hendricks has been the best of the Cubs pitchers thus far this season with a 3.19 ERA/3.06 FIP. The Reds offense has been hitting better of late, but they still have a 74 wRC+ and .667 OPS against right handed pitchers on the season. I don’t think I’m out of line in saying Hendricks will have a good game here.
The Cubs, on the other hand, have hit righties very well this season. They have a .807 OPS and 114 wRC+ against right handed started today. They go against Tanner Roark who has a 3.27 ERA/3.54 FIP on the season. That said, he has never pitched this well in his career and all the projection systems see him about a run higher than that. The difference thus far has been his low HR/FB rate which will come around. Possibly tonight as the Great American Ballpark is a pretty homer friendly place. Loving the Cubs today.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
Mike Foltynewicz has had a rough start to the season with a 5.94 ERA/6.89 FIP. He’s allowed five homeruns in three starts and this is not a great offense to show up with stats like that. St. Louis has a .777 OPS and 108 wRC+ against right handed starters on the season.
The Cardinals will send Jack Flaherty who has a 4.32 ERA/4.35 FIP. The Braves offense is good against righties, but not as good as the Cardinals. Flaherty has huge strikeout numbers and I think he can get it done here.
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
The Royals aren’t typically a team that we pick, but we’ll make an exception today with Shelby Miller on the mound. Miller has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball with a 7.48 ERA/6.58 FIP and over six walks per nine. He’s a low strikeout guy and allows the longball. He is everything we are looking for when picking against a pitcher. The Royals have been tough this season with a .763 OPS and 103 wRC+ against right handed pitching.
Danny Duffy has looked good for the Royals over his last couple of starts. He’s nothing special, but he’s better than Miller and the Royals bullpen is better than the Rangers.
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