3-0 last night. 55-34 on the season.
We took the Cubs over the Reds last night and Kyle Hendricks was a big part of that. He had an absolutely masterful start as he went eight innings and only allowed three hits and one run. He actually did it all himself as he was also 3-for-4 with two RBIs.
We also had the Cardinals over the Braves. The Braves sent Mike Foltynewicz to the mound who really looked like a pitcher we could target as he’s struggled early. Well, he really struggled here as he allowed eight runs in 4.2 innings of work. The bullpen allowed another six runs and the Cards rolled.
Our final play was the Royals who are a team we don’t normally target. That didn’t matter with Shelby Miller on the mound for the Rangers. Miller has been the worst starter in baseball this season and he solidified that status with 8 runs allowed in 1.2 innings pitched last night.
A nice night and a good end to the “early” version of our system. We’ve now switched over to the full Bet MLB System. That takes into account the following factors: pitcher home/road splits, hitter left/right splits, bullpen, and park factors. I will rely on the “early” system at times with small sample size and to double check picks, but we are heading toward the full system. Let’s see what it has today.
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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
The system does not trust Yu Darvish and neither do I. He is really struggling in his return from injury with walk and homerun numbers off the charts. He has a 5.40 ERA/6.49 FIP on the season and the road can be cruel. The Reds offense has been slowly picking up steam, but is still below average. That said, they do have homerun hitters.
Sonny Gray is yet to get an official win, but has pitched very well with a 4.15 ERA/2.98 FIP on the season. The Cubs offense is tough, but the system likes him to do well here. Throw in the excellent Reds bullpen and I’m going with the Reds here.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
As bad as Foltynewicz has been for the Braves, Mike Soroka has been good. He’s got good strikeout numbers and is yet to allow a homerun on the season. He’s posed an excellent 1.21 ERA/2.63 FIP thus far this season. The Cards offense is very good, but they’ve been cooler of late and Soroka is a strong pitcher to back.
The Cards send Michael Wacha who has not been good thus far. He has a 5.35 ERA/5.46 FIP with bad walk and homerun numbers. The Braves offense has the talent to punish him.
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
Mike Minor is a pitcher we’ve backed a few times this season and we will again tonight. He’s posted an excellent 2.68 ERA/3.65 FIP thus far this season, but what I really like about him is his match-up. The Royals have really struggled against lefties this season with just a .652 OPS and 73 wRC+ against southpaws.
The Royals send Jorge Lopez who is a pitcher that can be hit. He has a 6.07 ERA/5.71 FIP on the year with too many homeruns allowed to be successful. The Rangers offense is one of the best in the league against righties with a .787 OPS and 104 wRC+.
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