A 1-1 record last night.
The Astros did what they were supposed to do against the Cubs last night as Jon Lester had another awful start. I had thought he was pitching a bit over his head early in the season and that has really come around in his last two starts. He’s not this bad, but against an offense like Houston he is just not going to have a great game.
The Mariners game was kind of a disaster though. This one wasn’t that bad until the fifth when the Rangers erupted for seven runs. Marco Gonzales has now lost five of his past six decisions and we’ll be putting him on the back burner for the foreseeable future.
I am running late today so I am going to make this quick.
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Note: All tips based on the starters mentioned at the time of this writing. If there is a late switch or the starter is wrong, please consider the tip null and void.
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
This is mostly a bet against the White Sox offense. Glenn Sparkman is making only his second start of the season as he’s mostly worked in long relief, but he has really done a good job this year. He’s only allowed more than one earned run once this season and is a nice play here. What I like about this one though is the White Sox offense is really slumping hard right now. Over the last two weeks they have just a .619 OPS/68 wRC+.
The Royals have been solid offensively this season, nothing special, but they draw a nice match-up against Reynaldo Lopez who has a 6.03 ERA/5.77 FIP on the year.
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros Betting Tips:
I have to go back to the Astros here with Kyle Hendricks on the mound for Chicago. While he has been very solid and their best starter, he has been worse on the road and the Astros are the best offense in the league this year. I think the Astros can get to him.
For Houston, it’s Wade Miley who has a 3.32 ERA/4.32 FIP on the year. Not the best, but the Cubs have been a lesser offense against lefties this year. He won’t be asked to do much as well and the Astros bullpen is the best in the game.
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
Here’s the thing, Noah Syndergaard hasn’t been Noah Syndergaard this season. He has a 4.93 ERA/3.70 FIP on the season and is hittable right now. While the Dodgers offense has been very good against righties with a 118 wRC+ on the year.
The Dodgers send Walker Buehler who is good with a 3.58 ERA/3.07 FIP. He’s not that scary to me either though and the Dodgers bullpen has been struggling of late.
This line is set very low, almost for a different game, and I think the offenses can push this one over the top. If this was 8 I’d stay away, but at 7.5 it is a nice value on the over.
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