A 1-0 night last night. The Red Sox now lead the series 3-1.
We took the runline with the Red Sox last night and the comments had me saying to go with the moneyline. That proved correct, but the way this game played out I am happy that I did what I did. You can’t expect a team to score nine runs in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. That is a very unlikely result in a game of this magnitude. The funny thing is, I was really considering the over but after being burned over 18 innings that seemed like a bad idea. I should know that yesterday’s results aren’t predictive of today’s. I’ve been preaching it all season.
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So, here we go. The World Series could end tonight. David Price is on the mound for the Red Sox and he could complete his revitalization as a playoff pitcher with a clinching win tonight. This guy was the worst postseason pitcher of all-time, but then against the Astros everything flipped. He was solid against them in the clinching game and solid against the Dodgers earlier in this series. Can it continue today?
LA will send Clayton Kershaw to the mound and he has his own playoff demons to overcome. Well, he has overcome them I think, but a loss here would keep that sticker of “playoff choker” on him and it might never fully wash off. Plus, a loss ends his chances at a World Series ring again and he’s not getting any younger.
A lot of narratives at play here. A lot of pressure on Kershaw and Price. This could be a good one.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox Game 5 Betting Tips:
The decision to go with Price over Chris Sale will be scrutinized to be sure. The good thing about that decision though is that if this game is in reach they can pull that trump card out and there won’t be much the Red Sox can do about it.
That said, Kershaw at home in a deciding game is very intriguing. He had a 2.58 ERA/3.35 FIP and all of his best starts of this postseason have come at home. I think he can match Rich Hill‘s performance from yesterday and get this team to game six. I don’t fully trust the bullpen behind him, but I do trust Kenley Jansen and I think those two can combine for at least eight and possibly the full nine. I’ve been harping on this the whole playoffs, but the Red Sox are a worse hitting team against lefties. That hasn’t really paid off (outside of yesterday’s first six innings), but the numbers don’t lie and two-out, Eduardo Nunez stuff won’t happen forever.
I think that Price is over those playoff woes, I truly do. That said, he did have a 3.58 ERA/4.02 FIP on the season so it’s not like we are talking about someone like Sale here. He is still hittable and the Dodgers will be desperate here.
This game feels more like game four than anything. I think the pitching shows up and the bats go cold. Give me the Dodgers in a close one.
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