We now have betting odds on who will hit the most homeruns in 2018 thank to our friends at 5Dimes. Last year was quite a race up until the point that Giancarlo Stanton went crazy and got to 59 bombs. Stanton was the favorite in last year‘s odds and he is the favorite here again.
It’s easy to see why. The move to New York should mean that homeruns will be a bit easier to come by thanks to the short fences in the corners. He’ll have competition, as he did last year, from teammate Aaron Judge who hit 52 last year. That team is going to hit a lot of homeruns and it’s not going to be fair.
Let’s take a look at the Steamer projections for 2018 and compare them to the odds.
Based on just how big of a favorite he is by projections, +500 is actually a pretty great value for Stanton. Of course, injuries are always a concern when it comes to him and teams are going to choose on a nightly basis to not pitch to him and take their chances with Judge (or Greg Bird).
One player I think is being hugely underrated is JD Martinez. He hit 45 homers in just 119 games last season. He only hit 22 in 2016, but that was an injury plagued year for him. He also hit 38 in 120 games in 2015. If we can ever get a full season out of him, he could post some big numbers. Of course, he’s still a free agent as of this writing so his home park could play a big factor in where he ultimately ends up.
There is also something about Mike Trout that is really appealing to me. He’s never had more than 41 in a season, but the potential is certainly there. He just needs to get pitched to. Many think that Shohei Otani could help with that. A better offense should help with that as well as Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart should make for a much more dangerous lineup than last year’s abomination.
Looking for a deep sleeper? Check out Matt Olson. He hit 24 homeruns in 59 games last season and showed elite power. He had 47 combined between Triple A and the majors while only playing 138 games. Ignoring a possible second season slump, he should continue launching them for this Oakland team that will give him all the at-bats he can handle.
Full odds are below: